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AXNT20 KNHC 272334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT S OF 20N W OF 95W. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 0600 UTC SAT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W TO 0N15W TO 3S21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 3S21W TO 4S33W TO 1S40W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 2S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-7S BETWEEN 10W-30W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N87W. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N81W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N89W TO S MEXICO AT 17N94W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 20N W OF 95W. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT. A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N81W TO THE SE GULF AT 25N84W. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 80W-86W TO INCLUDE S FLORIDA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 85W-87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF S OF 28N. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. EXPECT IN 12 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION AND SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... GUATEMALA...BELIZE...W HONDURAS
...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 71W. UPPER AIR MOISTURE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N.


...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REACH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI IN 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S SOUTH CAROLINA AT 33N81W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO N FLORIDA AT 30N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 26N- 32N W OF 75W. A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N48W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N35W TO 25N40W TO 21N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N15W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N39W TO 29N36W TO 21N40W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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