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AXNT20 KNHC 271750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 95W BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES MOVING E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 9-13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 06N12W TO 04N16W. THE ITCZ IS LOCATED FROM 05S15W TO 06S28W TO 03S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 100 MN OF THESE BOUNDARIES.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N81W AND EXTENDING ITS COLD FRONT SW TO 30N84W THEN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO 26N90W TO 20N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN N OF 22N AND E OF 97W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF WATERS...FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 26N85W TO 28N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE E GULF MAINLY E OF 87W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 22N89W TO 19N91W TO 18N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS S OF 19N BETWEEN 91W-94W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM SOUTH AMERICA. A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. WITH THESE FEATURES...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR PREVAIL OVER THE BASIN SUPPORTING BENIGN WEATHER. SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-75W WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEN INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO 30N76W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A BROAD 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N51W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N36W TO 24N43W...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH 22N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 36W-44W. A STATIONARY 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AND BECOMING A TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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