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AXNT20 KNHC 231804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N71W... ALONG THE COAST OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N71W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS AROUND THE AREA OF THE 1007 MB LOW CENTER/SURFACE TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 27N BETWEEN 61W AND 76W. SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE LOW CENTER/TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 73W...FROM THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W...AND IN PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.

THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 3.14 IN ST. THOMAS...1.34 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.33 IN BERMUDA... AND 0.17 IN GUADELOUPE. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEATHER BUREAU IS REPORTING 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN MILLIMETERS...AS OF 22/1200 UTC...30.4 SANTIAGO CENTRO...27.2 AEROPUERTO PUNTA CANA...24.8 SANCHEZ...19.0 GASPAR HERNANDEZ (ESPAILLAT)...17.7 SAMANA...15.7 AEROPUERTO ARROYO BARRIL...AND 15.2 SABANA GRANDE DE BOYA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N71W. WITHIN 30 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW AND NE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT E OF BAHAMAS. FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE UNIVERSITY OF ALBANY TROPICAL WAVE DIAGNOSTICS. THE NORTHERN VORTICITY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS WITHIN 480 NM TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE PART OF THE WAVE THAT WE ARE FOLLOWING ALONG 35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N30W AND 8N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N40W TO 6N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N20W 9N23W 8N35W 8N40W 8N46W 7N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N101W IN MEXICO. PART OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N101W CENTER COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...AT KVBS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N78W...ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE 23N78W CYCLONIC CENTER IS TO THE WEST OF THE WIND FLOW REGIME THAT SURROUNDS THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N71W. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 23N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 3.14 IN ST. THOMAS...1.34 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.33 IN BERMUDA... AND 0.17 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND 86W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...AND THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N71W.


...HISPANIOLA...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N71W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS COVER BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO... LA ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST TIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. A TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE 16N57W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 24N50W AND 29N43W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THE CENTER.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N60W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF ANOTHER MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 33N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THAT IS COVERED ALREADY BY THE WIND FLOW REGIMES THAT ACCOMPANY THE 16N57W CYCLONIC CENTER...THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE 23N78W CYCLONIC CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.33 IN BERMUDA..

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N26W...TO 30N40W 26N62W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...AND THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N71W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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