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000
AXNT20 KNHC 310007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N46W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8-11N BETWEEN 46W-50W. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N AND W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW WITHIN 48 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N29W TO 9N29W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS LOCATED ON THE BASE OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 9N29W. A MOIST AREA IS NOTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N AND W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 29W-33W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N55W TO 10N52W AND MOVING W AT 15- 20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE 1011 MB SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A MOIST AREA IS NOTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N OF 18N AND W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 52W-56W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 12N16W TO 9N29W TO 5N37W TO 10N46W TO 7N52W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N52W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 6N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND SPECIAL FEATURE LOW...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 14W-16W...AND FROM 5N- 8N BETWEEN 33W-37W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N90W TO HOUSTON TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA S OF 28N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 92W. AIR MASS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER W CUBA...AND N YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABOVE THE STATIONARY FRONT WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND A 1017 MB HIGH TO FORM SE OF LOUISIANA. ALSO EXPECT AN AREA OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE SE GULF DUE TO REMNANTS OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...E NICARAGUA...AND E HONDURAS. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 17N82W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N65W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA... HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO.


...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-74W. MORE AIR MASS AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N76W TO COCOA BEACH FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 74W-80W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N23W TO 25N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 62W-70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N31N PRODUCING SHEAR ABOVE ONE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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