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AXNT20 KNHC 232345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N42W TO 10N41W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE A SOUTHERN POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALONG A BROADER 700 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NW NEAR 18N51W SE TO THE LOCATION OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 04N42W. THE WAVE REMAINS SOUTH OF A LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY JET N OF 10N THAT IS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. AS A RESULT OF THE SAL...CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPRESSED S OF 10N WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N58W TO 18N56W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTAINS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AND HAS INCORPORATED THE NORTHERN POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OF A 700 MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 18N51W TO 04N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 55W-62W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST FOLLOWS IN WAKE OF THE WAVE WITH THE LEADING EDGE NOTED E OF 53W THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N91W TO 20N93W MOVING W AT 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN 91W-96W THIS EVENING.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N16W TO 13N20W TO 10N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N26W TO 09N35W TO 03N46W TO 03N51W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 15W-18W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER TENNESSEE S-SW TO OVER THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N98W AND INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N102W. MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS FOCUSED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION AND COASTAL LOUISIANA THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N91W. A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE LOW CENTER AND WEST TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER NEAR 30N94W. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NW GULF THIS EVENING N OF 25N BETWEEN 88W-95W. FARTHER SE...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN A 120 NM WIDE LINE FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 30N82W S-SW TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 84W-88W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND ANCHORS ALONG 27N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N83W THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF 19N85W. WHILE MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N68W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING...A STREAM OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING WESTWARD WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 57W- 72W. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WHICH IS NOTED AS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W THIS EVENING. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AND BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FINALLY...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND...HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR THIS EVENING DUE TO MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 17N68W. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS LIE TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND AS A WEAK RIDGE PRECEDES A TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO IMPACT HISPANIOLA WITH PRECIPITATION BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 30N75W THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N68W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING S OF 30N WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. MOST MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS REMAINS N OF 30N ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 30N W OF 67W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...THE SURFACE RIDGE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG 30N IS ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N33W AND 30N39W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. FINAL ITEM OF NOTE IS A LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SAHARAN DUST STRETCHING REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF 10N AND EAST OF 53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ HUFFMAN

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