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AXNT20 KNHC 221151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 22/1200 UTC IS IN THE THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.4N 92.4W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 104 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE MEXICO GULF COAST ALONG 97W/98W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SPILLING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N TO CUBA. NUMEROUS STRONG ALSO IS IN NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N33W 8N35W 3N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. THIS WAVE WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE SURFACE ANALYSIS BASED ON SATELLITE HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS AND UNIVERSITY OF ALBANY EASTERLY WAVE DIAGNOSTICS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N54W 12N57W 7N58W... MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL FROM 4N TO 20N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N15W TO 5N22W AND 6N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.


...DISCUSSION...


...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND COVERING PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS...TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... TO 28N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W 26N78W...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG EVERYWHERE UNDER THE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 29N80W 27N90W 26N97W...FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF MEXICO.

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO 31N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N76W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N82W IN FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF MEXICO.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 32N71W... 29N81W...BEYOND 22N98W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KBBF...KEMK... AND AT KGBK.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST FLORIDA.


...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND IT CONTINUES HEADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD...THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 20N FROM 74W WESTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...THROUGH NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA...THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF NICARAGUA INTO NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN LAKE MARACAIBO OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD.


...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN/ SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS-TO-ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS DESCRIBED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MONA PASSAGE BETWEEN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE CURRENT RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE CROSSING HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO- SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.


...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N53W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 27N55W LOW CENTER TO 33N54W TO THE NORTH...AND TO 23N55W TO THE SOUTH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N51W 23N46W 18N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N41W 25N49W 28N50W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N29W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N NORTHWARD...BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N29W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 34N29W LOW CENTER TO 30N29W 28N30W AND 24N34W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE 1004 MB LOW CENTER. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 22W AND 33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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