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000
AXNT20 KNHC 290544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N31W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-05N BETWEEN 31W- 38W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE W ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 33N83W AND 40N80W. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTS STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. SLIGHT TO GENTLE E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY E OF 90W WHILE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW SE WINDS W OF 90W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGING TO PREVAIL. A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BY EARLY FRIDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 18N74W TO 10N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. SLIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW IS WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE GENTLE TRADES DOMINATE E OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE BUT SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.


...HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT FOR THIS FRONT TO WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A PAIR OF FRONTS. THE FIRST IS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N78W TO 32N64W. THE SECOND ONE IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N70W TO 32N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 56W-69W. THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N37W TO 25N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 35W-41W. TO THE E...SURFACE RIDGING SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 38N29W. A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC...WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A FRESH BREEZE FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 34W-40W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT THIS MORNING ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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