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000
AXNT20 KNHC 241015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
615 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 07N-20N with axis
near 48W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave
coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough depicted in global
models and is embedded in a dry air from the surface to 850 mb as
indicated by the CIRA Layer Precipitable Water imagery. No
convection is associated with the wave due in part to the presence
of Saharan dry air and dust in the wave environment.

A tropical wave is in the Yucatan Peninsula and north Central
America from 11N to 20N with axis near 89W, moving W at 20 kt
within the last 24 hours. SSMI TPW imagery show abundant moderate
moisture in the wave low to mid level environment. Aloft,
divergent flow support scattered to isolated showers over the
Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador as well as the
Gulf of Honduras.

A tropical wave is over southern Mexico S of 19N with axis near
96W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. Scattered
showers are inland southern Mexico. Isolated showers extends to
the western Bay of Campeche S of 20N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 21N17W and continues to a 1011 mb low near 12N27W to
08N38W. The ITCZ begins near 08N38W and continues to 06N48W to the
coast of Guyana near 05N57W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03N to 11N between 20W and 40W and from 04N to 10N W of 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging covers most of the basin N of 20N and
provide gentle to moderate return flow. South of 20N, a tropical
wave is in the Yucatan Peninsula supporting isolated showers in
the Yucatan Channel and eastern Bay of Campeche. A second tropical
wave is inland southern Mexico with isolated showers extending to
the western Bay of Campeche. For further information about the
waves refer to the waves section above. In the upper levels, a
broad ridge anchored over northern Louisiana provides NE to E flow
to the basin, except for the far SE portion of the Gulf where an
upper level low centered between Grand Bahama and southern
Florida generates diffluence aloft to support scattered heavy showers
and isolated tstms S of 26N E of 87W. The wave in the Yucatan
Peninsula will move to the Bay of Campeche today supporting
showers.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave with axis in the Yucatan Peninsula continue to
support scattered to isolated showers in the Gulf of Honduras. In
the remainder NW basin, a diffluent environment aloft generated by
a low centered between south Florida and Grand Bahama, and NE
flow over the Gulf of Mexico supports scattered to isolated
showers N of 18N W of 76W. Similar convection is within 60 nm off
the coast of Panama and Costa Rica supported by the presence of
the east Pacific monsoon trough. A surface trough associated with
shallow moisture is moving across the NE Caribbean with possible
isolated showers. Strong dry air subsidence is depicted in water
vapor imagery across the remainder basin, which is favoring fair
weather. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are from 11N-13N between
71W and 75W, including the Gulf of Venezuela with seas to 8 ft.
These winds are expected to prevail in the same region for the
next two days. Moderate trades dominate elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Strong dry air subsidence over the Island maintains fair weather
conditions this morning. Shallow moisture associated with a
surface trough in the NE Caribbean will support showers this
afternoon and evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving over central Atlantic waters with no
convection. Please refer to the section above for details. An
upper level low centered between southern Florida and Grand
Bahama Island support scattered showers in the Florida Straits
and the Great Bahama Bank. A 1011 mb center of low pressure
developed in the monsoon trough near 11N27W, which supports
scattered moderate convection from 05N-12N between 22W and 30W and
isolated showers E of 27W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are
forecast to develop this afternoon S of 21N between 71W and 74W,
including the approach to Windward Passage. Otherwise, surface
ridging dominates elsewhere. No major changes expected in the next
two days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS

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