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AXNT20 KNHC 041035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N16W TO 02N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 02N23W AND EXTENDS TO 02N35W TO 03N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N45W TO 03N46W TO 00N46W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH AT 03N47W AND EXTENDS TO BRAZIL AT 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-06N BETWEEN 03W-35W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 40W-52W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W TO NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO AT 19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 80W-88W. 10-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF FRONT. 10-15 KT S FLOW IS E OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT WAS OVER FLORIDA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 08N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NORTH COLOMBIA FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 72W-77W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER E HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. NORTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...W NICARAGUA... W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR AND S GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. ALSO IN 24 HOURS PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND W CUBA.

HISPANIOLA...

ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER E HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER E HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-80W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 29N57W TO 23N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N35W. A 1010 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 34N14W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. MORE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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