Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 36-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N74W TO 23N80.5W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WESTERLY WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 16 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N76W BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...15N76W...TO 10N77W AT THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W...TO 7N15W 6N23W AND 6N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N25W TO 4N32W AND 4N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 5N FROM 30W EASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 54W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N53W 13N55W 10N57W. THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....TO THE FLORIDA...AND FROM NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...TO 24N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURVES ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST FROM 28N80W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IN MOST PLACES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THAT PART THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...TOWARD THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 6 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 93W/94W...FROM 22N INTO THE CENTRAL ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

OVERCAST CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT KXIH. OVERCAST CLOUDS AT 6500 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT KVBS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS IS BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS IN... HARLINGEN AND ALICE. A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE PEARLAND REGIONAL AIRPORT IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT BROOKSVILLE-TAMPA BAY IN FLORIDA. LIGHT RAIN WAS OBSERVED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN THE FORT MYERS FLORIDA AREA.


...FROM THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND THE U.S.A...INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N66W...TO 19N64W...TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF VENEZUELA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 30N70W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N73W TO 23N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N FROM 65W WESTWARD. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 65W FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 26N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 22N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 65W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.


...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A RIDGE...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 19N76W 10N77W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.16 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA TO 7N77W...THROUGH 8N81W IN PANAMA...ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND 10N85W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W INCLUDING IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 2N FROM 81W EASTWARD...AND IN THE COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE THAT IS ON TOP OF THE 19N76W 10N77W TROPICAL WAVE.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB...FOR 500 MB...AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 27N30W AND 25N34W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 30N23W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 30N23W TO 27N26W AND 24N33W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N17W 24N26W 23N37W 24N50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N38W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 10N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

Home