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AXNT20 KNHC 040550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 22.0N 36.5W AT 04/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 795 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 22N34W 23N35W TO 22N37W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 15N17W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N17W TO 9N16W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 16W-21W INCLUDING THE COAST OF W AFRICA.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 28W FROM 11N-21N WITH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N50W TO 8N48W MOVING SW NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATED THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W-SW NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE 1010 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N17W TO THE 1014 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N28W TO 12N39W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N47W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. ALL DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. SEE ABOVE.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 26N93W DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS E ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE THE W GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 88W-93W. A WEAK DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN AT 04/0300 UTC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N E OF 93W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER S MEXICO HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 19N BETWEEN 93W-95W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 29N87W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W AND EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS ALONG 20N83W TO 19N78W. A SECOND UPPER LOW COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W AND IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO. A INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE IS BETWEEN THESE UPPER LOWS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO 19N80W. THE WESTERLY UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 83W FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO W CUBA AND INCLUDES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N76W ALONG 10N80W THEN ACROSS W PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM NICARAGUA 14N84W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN AS THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE W ATLC SHIFTS SLOWLY SE AND WEAKENS. THE SW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT.


...HISPANIOLA... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW OVER PUERTO RICO IS GIVING THE ISLAND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRI NIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS SAT THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N70W. A SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE SE COAST SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH AT 04/0300 UTC FROM 32N78W TO 28N80W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N W OF 75W TO THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 48W-70W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N46W THROUGH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N51W TO 23N56W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 27N. A 1016 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N64W AND A SECOND IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N52W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N21W. W/CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT AS THE WEAK W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH MOVES S OFF E FLORIDA THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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