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000
AXNT20 KNHC 160602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 29.0N 56.9W AT 16/0300Z UTC OR ABOUT 453 NM ESE OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY EAST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 55W- 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 27N-34N BETWEEN 55W-61W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N26W TO A 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N26W. THE APPROXIMATELY WESTWARD TRANSLATION SPEED OF THE WAVE IS 20 KT. A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION OF MOISTURE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS IS NOTED IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY...WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT LACK OF CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N47W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 17N47W TO 9N47W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. INTRUSION OF SAHARAN DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM KEEP IT MAINLY CONVECTIVE FREE EXCEPT NEARBY THE LOW CENTER WHERE A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 44W-50W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N26W TO 11N40W 8N50W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N50W TO THE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 6N56W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N E OF 19W...AND FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 28W-41W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

OVERALL INSTABILITY CONTINUES ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE BASIN DUE TO DEEP LAYER TROUGHINESS IN THE WESTERN BASIN AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 27N95W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E-NE BASIN THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH ON THE SW N ATLC NEAR 28N75W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE EAST OF 93W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE FORMER STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION IS SUPPORTING TRADES OF 10-15 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. EXCEPT FOR THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS SUPPORTING CONVECTION...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...THUS SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON THE NW BASIN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 78W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE S OF 13N W OF 78W. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


...HISPANIOLA...

MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE REGION ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. BESIDES THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS INDUCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS ABOVE. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS NE INTO THE SW N ATLC TO SUPPORT A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N75W. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT STARTS TO DISSIPATE IN THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N17W TO 28N22W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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