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AXNT20 KNHC 252354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over Africa has an axis that extends from 15N07W to 05N11W is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The wave coincides with an amplified 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of moderate moisture from the surface to 700 mb behind the wave trough as indicated by CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. Isolated convection is the wave's environment.

A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic extends its axis from 12N37W to 02N40W. The wave is moving west at about 15 kt. This wave is noted at 700 mb as a weak trough and it is embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 700 mb as indicated by CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. The Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air in the northern wave environment that along with strong deep layer wind shear it is inhibiting convection N of 07N. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 07N between 36W and 41W.

A tropical wave extends along 63W and south of 12N to inland over eastern Venezuela moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and is embedded in an area of low to moderate moisture. Isolated convection prevails across the southern half of the wave mainly south of 06N between 58W and 64W.

A tropical wave extends across the southwest Caribbean with axis from 17N78W to 06N78W. This wave is moving west at about 5 to 10 kt. Abundant moisture prevails in the wave's environment and with the support of an upper-level trough currently across the west Caribbean, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed S of 16N between 72W and 82W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa reaching the east Tropical Atlantic near 09N13W to 06N20W where the ITCZ begins to E of a tropical wave near 04N35W. The ITCZ then resumes west of the wave near 03N40W to South America near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 2N to 08N between 30W and 36W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic SW across Florida and then reaching the Gulf waters. At upper levels, a ridge extends across most of the basin except east of 86W where the eastern portion of an upper-level trough prevails. Scatterometer data depict a gentle to moderate SE flow across the basin. Expect a similar weather pattern to prevail during the next 24 hours. The pressure gradient will strengthen over the northwest Gulf by Friday morning supporting an increase the southeast winds to fresh to strong.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature across the basin is a tropical wave located in the SW Caribbean. Please see the Tropical Waves section for details. Scattered light to moderate convection is observed over Cuba and Hispaniola supported by an upper-level trough with axis extending along 80W. Low-level moisture transported by the moderate to fresh trades is generating isolated convection that prevails across the remainder of the basin. A strong pressure gradient between the low pressure in the SW basin and the high pressure NE of the area in the Atlantic supports fresh to strong winds S of 18N between 68W and 79W. These winds are forecast to diminish during the next 48 hours. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west with convection while another tropical wave will enter the basin.

HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection will continue across the island through the evening hours supported by an upper-level trough with axis along 80W. A similar pattern will continue during the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper-level trough prevails over the W Atlantic with base reaching S to the SW Caribbean. This feature supports isolated to scattered moderate convection across the west Atlantic mainly W of 70W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N67W to 25N72W. A 1017 mb surface low is centered near 26N68W, with a surface trough extending from 29N67W, to the low, to 24N70W. Latest satellite imagery and current observations show some signs of organization of this low and environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development. For future information chances, please refer to the Special Tropical Weather Outlook product under AWIPS Header TWOAT and WMO Header ABNT20 KNHC. A tropical wave extends across the south-central Atlantic along 38W. Please see the Tropical Wave section for more details. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 36N49W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the low in the west Atlantic to move NW with convection.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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