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000
AXNT20 KNHC 280541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND EXTENDS ALONG 6N15W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N27W 2N36W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-33W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE FAR NW GULF WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE N GULF. AT THE SURFACE A 1001 MB LOW AT 28/0300 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 27N94W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 23N94W TO 21N95W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN. AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1001 LOW ALONG 29N88W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY TO FLAGLER BEACH. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 86W AND W OF LINE FROM 26N86W ALONG 26N91W TO TUXPAN MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE SW GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NESDIS HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE STILL SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE SW GULF. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER S ALABAMA WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT EXITING THE GULF WED NIGHT WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE W GULF THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N81W TO 11N76W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN ARE SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. PERIODS OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUE/EARLY WED AND DIMINISH BY LATE FRI. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT AND STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS BY THU NIGHT.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS NW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NE HAITI. LOW RAINFALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM FOR MOST OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION WHERE DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A COLD FRONT AT 28/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW JUST E OF BERMUDA ALONG 29N69W 28N75W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 29N79W TO THE COAST NEAR FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N W OF 76W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 29N60W TO 25N70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N42W TO 22N42W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 37W-55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1024 MB HIGH BETWEEN MADIERA AND AZORES ISLANDS AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N25W ALONG 23N49W 20N58W TO HISPANIOLA. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N52W TO 24N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND FROM 32N41W TO 26N60W THEN LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT TO THE SE GEORGIA COAST WED NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE IN WED NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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