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AXNT20 KNHC 080558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 19W...MOVING W AT 5 KT. ACCORDING TO METEOSAT IMAGERY...THE WAVE CONTINUES BEING ENGULFED BY SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST...WHICH IS SUPPORTING LACK OF CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN. ITS AXIS IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 70W AND MOVES W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 13N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. ELSEWHERE... STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 77W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 17N AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH TSTMS S OF 11N. DEEP CONVECTION N OF 11N IS BEING HINDER IN PART DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 08N20W TO 09N28W TO 08N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 08N34W TO 07N41W TO 04N47W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N89W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE W-NW GULF TO THE CENTRAL BASIN WHERE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. MODERATE MOIST AIR CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA THAT ALONG WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N E OF 85W. STRONG DEEP LATER WIND SHEAR PARTLY INHIBITS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 28N85W. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. E TO SE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NEARBY THE HIGH CENTER IN THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE OF 5 KT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IN THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH REGION...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD ENHANCE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CUBA WHERE DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-83W ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.


...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH AIR LIFTING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST N OF THE ISLAND SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N-NW ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. SAHARAN DUST CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED ACROSS THE EASTERN ISLAND...WHICH SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N72W ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N TO 29N W OF 72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 43N53W AND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 36N31W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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