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AXNT20 KNHC 231804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 11N14W TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 3N23W 2N31W AND 1N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN BRAZIL AND IN FRENCH GUIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 47W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 7N7W IN THE IVORY COAST...TO 3N16W AND 3N22W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 9W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W... CROSSING NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N94W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS...TO TEXAS NEAR 29N101W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NORTHWESTWARD... BEYOND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A 1016 MB ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N91W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KVAF AND KSPR WITH A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER WESLACO...MCALLEN...AND EDINBURG IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...FROM FALFURRIAS TO THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE...FROM VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS...AND AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES... AND IN THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA...IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... AND IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN TALLAHASSEE AND IN BROOKSVILLE. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF VENEZUELA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURVING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 66W FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...AND POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.28 IN GUADELOUPE..


...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF VENEZUELA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURVING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N56W 26N60W 21N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 17N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 85W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... FEW LOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND A TROUGH. NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH DURING THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N56W TO 30N58W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 31N56W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N56W 26N60W 21N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 17N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W...TO 28N55W AND 25N59W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN BERMUDA.

REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE ALONG 26N15W 18N27W 14N39W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 240 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 25N15W 20N23W...WITHIN 400 NM TO 600 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 20N23W 10N38W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND THE MONA PASSAGE.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N35W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N56W 17N85W SURFACE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N56W TO 22N65W. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 59W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 35W AND 46W. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. A FOURTH AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N66W TO 29N74W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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