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AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RESUMING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01S15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S26W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 05S35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03S TO 03N BETWEEN 02W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO 01N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...THUS PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB LOW OVER OHIO SW TO A 1027 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ACROSS LOUISIANA TO 29N95W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 29N83W TO COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. OVER THE SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 25N95W TO 19N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDING S OF 25N. HOWEVER...SW TO W FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT ADVECTS MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN GULF. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTS FOG N OF 26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING...DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SIMILARLY...THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE SW N ATLC LATER THAT DAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER...LESSER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.


...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N80W SW TO 29N81W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 29N83W TO COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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