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AXNT20 KNHC 311123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis approximately at 19W from 3N to 11N, moving W at 15 kt. The northern wave is embedded in a dry environment according to CIRA layer precipitable water imagery near the surface. Moreover, Meteosat enhanced imagery show this portion of the wave is within a Saharan Air Layer outbreak, which dry air and dust are hindering the convection N of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough scattered moderate convection and isolated thunderstorms are from 2N to 9N between 6W and 21W.

Tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with axis approximately at 43W from 4N to 14N, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 700 mb according to CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. However, Meteosat enhanced imagery show Saharan dry air and dust in the northern wave environment that along with strong deep layer wind shear hinder the convection. A diffluent environment aloft S of 9N support scattered moderate convection from 6N to 9N between 39W and 52W.

Tropical wave is over the western tropical Atlantic with axis approximately at 56W S of 14N, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded in a high moist environment from the surface to 850 mb according to CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. Strong deep layer wind shear in the region limits the convection to scattered moderate from 7N to 10N between 50W and 58W.

Tropical wave is in the Caribbean with axis approximately at 80W S of 17N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb according to CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. However, strong deep layer wind shear in the region limits the convection to isolated showers and thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean S of 14N.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 8N18W to 04N25W where the ITCZ begins and then continues along 03N32W to 03N41W. For information about convection see the tropical waves section above.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate across the Gulf waters being anchored by a 1016 mb high near 27N86W, which provides gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. CIRA layer precipitable water and water vapor imagery show dry air across the Gulf, which supports fair weather. Little change is forecast over the next 48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin is a tropical wave in the SW Caribbean. See tropical waves section for details. This wave is expected to move over E Pacific waters by Tuesday night. Moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic by east to southeasterly flow along with a diffluent environment aloft support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Puerto Rico and adjacent waters as well as Dominican Republic and adjacent waters. Isolated showers are elsewhere E of 70W. In the NW basin, dry air subsidence supports fair weather. Gentle to moderate trade winds are present across the Caribbean, except within 90 nm off northern Colombia between 69W and 73W where fresh wind prevails. The tropical wave in the SW region will move to EPAC waters late tonight while a new one moves across the Lesser Antilles. Showers in the SW and NE Caribbean will continue the next two days.


...HISPANIOLA...

A diffluent environment aloft between the base of a trough extending from the SE Conus and a ridge over the eastern Caribbean along with moisture being advected from the tropical Atlantic support scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Dominican Republic and adjacent waters. Showers are expected to continue through Tuesday mainly in the eastern part of the island.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough extends from the SE Conus, across the SW N Atlantic to a base over the Caribbean. East of 70W, a ridge aloft generates a diffluent environment that along with moisture advection from the tropical Atlantic support scattered moderate convection and isolated thunderstorms between 64W and 77W. Over the north central basin, a cold front enters the area from 30N35W and continues along 29N44W to 31N53W where it becomes stationary. Ahead of the front, a surface trough is along 28N38W to 26N51W to 27N60W. No convection is associated with these two features. The remainder basin is dominated by surface ridging and fair weather. For tropical waves information, please refer to its section above.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ RAMOS

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