AXNT20 KNHC 230605

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC.


A tropical wave is in the E Atlc associated with a 1010 mb low centered E of the Cape Verde Islands near 15N21W. The wave axis extends from 18N21W to the low to 09N22W and it has been moving at 5 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear. However, the CIRA LPW imagery show extensive dry air around the low while moderate moist with some patches of dry air is S of the low. Meteosat enhanced imagery confirm the presence of Saharan dry air and dust around the low where there is lack of convection. Upper level divergence support scattered showers S of the low from 08N to 13N E of 25W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 15N41W to a 1009 mb low near 08N42W to 04N42W, moving W at 5 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, is mainly in a very moist environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW, and is under a region of upper level divergence. These factors support scattered heavy showers and tstms from 0N to 04N between 41W and 50W, and scattered showers within 250 nm of the low center.

A tropical wave is E of the Windward Islands with axis extending from 14N60W to inland Venezuela, moving west at 5 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear. However, extensive intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust hinder convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending from 20N83W to inland eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, moving west at 20 knots within the past 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. CIRA LPW imagery show patches of dry air ahead of the wave axis, which limit the convection to scattered to isolated showers S of 20N. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are E of the wave axis from 12N to 20N between 78W and 82W.


The Monsoon Trough extends from 12N22W to 06N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N26W to 04N41W to 04N51W. For information regarding convection see the tropical waves section.



Trailing rainbands of tropical depression Cindy N of the area continue to support isolated heavy showers across the norther Gulf N of 26N as indicated by Doppler radar data. Latest scatterometer data show fresh to strong S-SE winds in this same region W of 87W. Fresh winds are also noted in the far W basin W of 95W and in the Florida straits S of 24N. Moderate gentle to moderate SE winds are elsewhere. Otherwise, strong dry air subsidence across the basin support clear skies. A tropical wave will enter the Yucatan Peninsula later today with scattered showers and thunderstorms. An upper level low ahead of this wave will move over the Bay of Campeche supporting heavy showers and tstms over the W Gulf W of 90W over the weekend.


An upper-level low is centered over the NW Caribbean ahead of a tropical wave along 84W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are E of the wave axis with potential gusty winds from 15N to 20N. See the tropical waves section for further details. The upper level low support scattered heavy to isolated showers over Cuba and adjacent waters, including the Windward Passage. A 1009 mb low is over NW Colombia linked to the EPAC monsoon trough, which support isolated showers 120 nm off the Colombia coast S of 11N. Otherwise, moderate trades are across the central and E Caribbean ahead of the next tropical wave to enter the basin later today. The upper-level low is expected to move northwest toward the southwest Gulf of Mexico by Saturday with the tropical wave moving westward into the East Pacific waters during the weekend. Increased probability of convection and precipitation is expected across Central America and southern Mexico through this period.


Isolated showers are over SW Haiti and the Windward Passage associated with a tropical wave just W of Jamaica. An upper- level anticyclone continue to provide overall subsidence elsewhere, thus supporting fair weather across the remainder Island.


There are three tropical waves in the basin. See that section above for further details. Otherwise, the Azores high prevails across the basin being anchored by a 1025 mb high near 40N26W. A weakness in the ridge is being analyzed as 1017 mb low near 25N55W, which will dissipated later today. No significant areas of convection are occurring away from the ITCZ/monsoon trough/tropical waves. Little change is expected for the next couple of days.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Ramos