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000
AXNT20 KNHC 280549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
149 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas: IRVING and METEOR.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W, to 02N31W 02N36W, crossing the Equator along 43W, to 01S45W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 01N to 03N between 22W and 25W, and from 03N to 05N between 25W and 49W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 06N southward.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area. The middle level-to-upper level trough from 24 hours ago has moved across Florida, and into the western sections of the Atlantic Ocean. High level clouds are moving with the SW wind flow, now covering the area from 28N southward from 85W westward.

A surface ridge passes through 32N63W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 29N71W 29N78W, across Florida to 28N85W in the Gulf of Mexico, 26N90W, and to the coast of Mexico near 22N, in the SW corner of the area.


...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

Mist and haze, with areas of 3 to 5 miles, and smaller areas of 1 to 3 miles, at many of the platform sites.

VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOUISIANA: mist and 5 miles in SE coastal sections. FLORIDA: light rain near Milton. mist and fog, from Apalachicola to Cross City and Brooksville...1 mile or less in many areas.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level W wind flow moves across Central America to 80W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 14N southward from 80W eastward.

Upper level SW wind flow spans much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea, across the Greater Antilles, into the central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea.

Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N to 20N between the Mona Passage and 80W, and from 11N to 20N between 50W in the Atlantic Ocean and 66W in the Caribbean Sea.


...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is moving across the island. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong, inland and in the coastal waters. A middle level-to-upper level trough extends from a 30N71W cyclonic circulation center, to 23N73W, to 21N72W in the SE Bahamas.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. earlier cumulonimbus clouds have dissipated. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will be to the west of Hispaniola. A trough will be to the N and NE, in the Atlantic Ocean. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that a mixture of W and NW wind flow will move across Hispaniola during the first 12 hours or so of day one, of the 48-hour forecast. Expect broad cyclonic wind flow during the rest of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that more than one inverted trough will move across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. Expect periods of broad cyclonic wind flow.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough extends from a 30N71W cyclonic circulation center, to 23N73W, to 21N72W in the SE Bahamas. Convective precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate from 17N in the Caribbean Sea to 30N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 80W.

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N55W, to 24N54W, to 16N56W, and 12N56W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through a mean 32N25W cyclonic circulation center, to 26N23W, 20N27W and 18N29W. A surface trough extends from a 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 31N25W, to 27N25W and 24N34W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 27N to 32N between 18W and 21W, and from 31N to 34N between 25W and 28W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in scattered to broken low level clouds, from 20N northward between 20W and 60W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between 36W and 80W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ MT

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