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AXNT20 KNHC 032350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 12 TO 16 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 24W/25W FROM 05N TO 16N...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN AIR N OF 12N ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N E OF 25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 41W FROM 04N TO 13W...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATES A SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 10N IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 17N...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE MOISTURE WITH METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATING SAHARAN AIR N OF 12N WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA NEAR 11N16W TO 08N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N26W AND CONTINUES TO 08N40W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N43W TO NORTHERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 04N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W WITH A TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FL WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF 91W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM 24N97W TO 18N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N84W IS A WESTERN EXTENSION OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE WESTERN GULF. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US MAY BRING AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 82W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FEET. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING A CONVECTION FREE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND... HINDERING CONVECTION AND SUPPORTING HAZY CONDITIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N70W SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 77W AND SOUTH FL. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 25N47W COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC BASIN. TWO WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE IN THE FORM OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO 26N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N45W TO 23N45W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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