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AXNT20 KNHC 161751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 31.1N 57.8W AT 16/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 405 NM E-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT...MAKING EDOUARD THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2014 SEASON. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 56W-58W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N28W TO A 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N29W TO 10N29W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE WAS RETAINING SOME MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE GOES-R SEVIRI AIRMASS PRODUCT. HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATED STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N50W TO 10N50W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. SOME CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 18N DESPITE THE INTRUSION OF SAHARAN DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST PER GOES-R SEVIRI AIRMASS PRODUCT. ADDITIONALLY THE CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N15W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N29W TO 11N35W TO 12N41W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N41W TO 10N50W TO TRINIDAD. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120-180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-38W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

OVERALL INSTABILITY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN LOUISIANA TO NEAR LAKE CHARLES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE TROUGH AND WERE AFFECTING VAST STRETCHES OF THE COASTAL WATERS AREAS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA. GOES-R GRIDDED LIGHTING DATA INDICATED THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SUPPORTED A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 25N97W TO 18N95W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION WERE NOTED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E-NE BASIN THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN REGION IS SUPPORTING TRADES OF 10-15 KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 15- 20 KT TRADES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 77W-80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...THUS SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SE CUBA. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


...HISPANIOLA...

MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE REGION ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. BESIDES THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS INDUCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS ABOVE. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS NE INTO THE SW N ATLC AND IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N74W. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT ANALYZED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ COBB

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