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AXNT20 KNHC 221754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEAR GALE WINDS CONTINUE FOR ZONE AGADIR ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO...AND FOR ZONE CANARIAS IN BETWEEN ISLANDS. BEAUFORT 7 OR 32KT-38KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR BOTH ZONES. THE GALE IS DUE TO STRONG WINDS CAUSED BY A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MOROCCO.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...EXTENDING FROM 09N24W TO 04N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE WAVE SOUTH OF 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 06N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N27W AND CONTINUES THROUGH 06N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 02W AND 08W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 03W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 27W AND 47W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE GULF FROM NEAR 28N83W TO 29N86W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 29N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N98W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDED FROM 23N93W TO 18N95W...MOVING WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 94W AND 99W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N86W. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE BASIN EAST OF 90W AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. E TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NORTH OF THE FRONT. E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE BASIN W OF 90W AND S OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DISTURBANCES ROUNDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHER DAYTIME CONVECTION MAY MEANDER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW IS DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TO JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA...SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 87W. PRIMARILY 15 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WINDS NEARING 30 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WEAKER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINES WITH LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT PRIMARILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N77W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL FL COAST NEAR 29N81W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 64W WITH A BASE NEAR 24N SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 57W AND 68W. A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER S OF 32N ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF MOROCCO BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER N AFRICA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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