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000
AXNT20 KNHC 242349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N14W to 06N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N22W to 04N39W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 08W- 32W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 28N94W with 5 kt anticyclonic winds and fair weather. Another 1015 mb high is centered over the SW Gulf near 22N95W with similar winds and weather. A cold front is over the Straits of Florida from 25N80W to W Cuba at 23N81W mostly void of precipitation. In the upper levels a large trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis extending from the N Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect scattered showers to advect over the Straits of Florida over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a cold front is over the NW Caribbean from W Cuba at 23N81W to the Cayman Islands at 20N85W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the front. Further E, a surface trough is over the W Caribbean from 20N80W to 15N81W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough. Another surface trough is over the SW Caribbean from 15N79W to N Colombia near 10N76W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of this trough. A third surface trough is over the Windward Islands from 15N61W to 10N61W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. In addition, the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends over Costa rica and Panama producing scattered moderate convection. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the NW Caribbean enhancing convection. A small upper level high is centered S of Puerto Rico near 17N67W with strong subsidence E of 72W. Expect showers and convection to persist over the Caribbean between 75W- 85W for the next 24 hours.


...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are over western portions of the island as more active convection lies across eastern Cuba and the waters surrounding Jamaica in association with a favorable divergent environment within a southwesterly flow aloft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1008 mb Low is centered off the coast of N Florida near 30N79W. A cold front extends S from the low to the N Bahamas near 27N78W to the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. Scattered showers are over the Bahamas. A 1010 mb low is over the central Atlantic near 33N54W. A cold front extends S from the low to 26N60W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm E of the front. A 1000 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 30N28W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the N semicircle. A cold front also extends from 31N23W to 23N30W to 24N40W. Isolated moderate convection is N of 24N, E of front to W Africa. Of note in the upper levels, a trough is over the W Atlantic W of 70W supporting the cold front. A large upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N27W. Upper level diffluence is SW of the center enhancing convection.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa

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