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000
AXNT20 KNHC 250524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
124 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria is centered near 30.0N 73.0W at 25/0300 UTC or about 335 nm south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, moving north at 7 kt. Minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 135 nm of the center. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

Hurricane Lee is centered near 31.1N 49.5W at 25/0300 UTC or about 782 nm east of Bermuda moving east-southeast at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the center. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 20N29W to 08N31W, moving west at around 10 kt. The wave is supported by 700 mb troughing and weak 850 mb vorticity north of 14N in the vicinity of the wave axis. Little convection is associated with the wave axis at this time.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 14N62W to 08N63W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is on the southwestern periphery of a 700 mb ridge and the western periphery of an upper-level trough axis extending from 22N54W deep into the tropics to near 04N56W. Scattered moderate convection from 07N-12N between 55W-62W is likely associated with the upper-level trough already in place.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to 09N36W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 09N36W to 08N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-15N between 16W-27W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper-level low is noted on water vapor imagery over southern Alabama, extending a trough axis across the central Gulf to the northern Yucatan peninsula. A very weak pressure pattern exists across the entire basin, resulting in gentle to moderate easterly winds and areas of isolated showers under the influence of the mid-level lifting dynamics in place. Little change is expected in overall conditions. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, easterly flow will increase slightly into moderate to occasional fresh conditions as ridging noses in from the lower Mississippi River valley region into the eastern Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the section above for details. Southwest flow aloft prevails west of 75W, and a weak pressure pattern remains in place across the central and western Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the western half of the basin while moderate to fresh winds prevail east of 75W. A surface trough was analyzed from 16N75W to 11N74W and continues to be the focus for scattered showers between 70W-80W.


...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough southwest of the island enhanced showers across southern portions of the island. The trough will slide further westward through the next 24 hours as weak ridging builds in from the central Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. Outside the influence of Maria in the west Atlantic and Lee in the central Atlantic, surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the region. A 1022 mb high is centered east- northeast from Bermuda near 36N58W and a 1023 mb high is centered across the east Atlantic near 33N23W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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