Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 060559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N W OF 94W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N83W TO 24N93W TO 18N94W. WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT E-SE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N11W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S20W TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 03S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NW AND NE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND GREAT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST SW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 29N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN WILL START TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOMINATING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR THAT PROVIDES OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.


...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGHINESS ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 21W AND 42W. THE REMAINDER ATLC CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

Home