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AXNT20 KNHC 051721
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 08N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO 02N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-04N AND E OF 24W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING S-SE OVER WESTERN CUBA TO A BASE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE IS REFLECTED AT LOW LEVELS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO REACHING THE SE GULF MAINLY S OF 27N AND E OF 86W. W OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL AXIS...A NW FLOW PREVAILS SUPPORTING STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE W GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE E GULF PROVIDING A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD WITH CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE IN THE SW ATLANTIC REGION. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL CUBA FROM 27N77W TO 29N78W. THESE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE DEPICTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE ISLAND OF CUBA MAINLY N OF 19N AND W OF 78W. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...FLASH FLOODING AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES ACROSS CUBA ARE A THREAT. THIS AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AND MOVE N ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. UPPER- LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN AS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS CONTINUES N OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-77W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER/MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.


...HISPANIOLA...

A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES DOMINATING THE ISLAND PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE N-NW ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC AND MOVES N AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...S-SW UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ADVECTING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 63W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA CLEARLY DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N77W TO 21N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-32N AND W OF 69W. THIS AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND MOVE NORTHWARD ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TO THE E...A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 36N28W TO 24N60W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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