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AXNT20 KNHC 011759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE ALSO MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 10N TO 20N. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 42W AND 56W. PRECIPITATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 60W IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 10N20W 7N30W AND 7N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N36W 6N38W...AND 4N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W...AND FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 49W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 27W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 15W AND 21W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 55W.


...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS AND AFFECTING FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 26N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS NORTHWESTERLY-TO- NORTHEASTERLY FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY FROM 26N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N69W...TO 28N75W AND 28N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N78W...TO DAYTONA BEACH IN FLORIDA...ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA... TO 27N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W COVERING PARTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOUISIANA. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 64W WESTWARD TO THE U.S.A. COAST.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A BIT OF WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N38W TO 28N45W 26N57W...TO 16N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO 24N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

KMDJ WAS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH HAZE/FOG. KDLP IS REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA...AND AT SUPPLEMENTARY WEATHER REPORTING STATIONS IN FOURCHON AND IN GRAND ISLE IN COASTAL LOUISIANA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...IN TEXAS...AT THE STATION THAT IS IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...AND IN TOMBALL NEAR HOUSTON...IN MOBILE ALABAMA...IN BROOKSVILLE TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA FLORIDA...AROUND THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...TO SARASOTA... PUNTA GORDA...AND FORT MYERS...AND IN MARATHON KEY. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN/ COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA...AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS IN SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY FLORIDA WESTWARD...LIGHT DRIZZLE IN MARY ESTHER IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 16N58W...TO 15N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO TO 14N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 22N55W 18N56W 14N57W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ELSEWHERE FROM 70W EASTWARD...AND FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...9N78W IN EASTERN PANAMA...BEYOND WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PANAMA AT 01/0915 UTC...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AREA OF 15N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL REMAIN AS IS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE WATERS THAT ARE IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA ALONG 80W...AND FINALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE...FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THREE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS WITH TROUGHS ARE IN THE NORTHERN AREA OF THE MIATWDAT BOUNDARY ALONG 32N. ONE IS NEAR 32N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND 64W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 29N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 43W. A THIRD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N27W. A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES THROUGH 32N24W TO 25N30W AND 25N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 23W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 23W AND 28W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N38W TO 28N45W 26N57W...TO 16N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO 24N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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