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AXNT20 KNHC 201800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST SUN APR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...


...AN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N77W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N74W AND 22.5N78W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 20 NM AND 60 NM OF SHORE. EXPECT ALSO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 70W.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N16W...CURVING TO 13N19W AND 7N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N21W TO 3N23W...CURVING TO 1N29W 1N36W...AND TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 3S BETWEEN 32W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 1W...FROM 2S TO 6N BETWEEN 22W AND 33W...AND FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE RIDGE CURVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PARALLELING THE COAST MEXICO AND TEXAS...AND CONTINUING BEYOND THE BORDER OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM CORPUS CHRISTI SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE AREA OF PALACIOS...PORT LAVACA...AND VICTORIA. MOSTLY SCATTERED AND SOME BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD...TO BROOKSVILLE AND THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES...AND FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. OTHER LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 88W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 88W.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA...AND TO GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 79W... ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA...TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 64W...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.15 AT MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.10 AT KINGSTON IN JAMAICA...0.12 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.01 AT SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...EXCEPT 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W.


...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA...AND TO GUATEMALA AND BELIZE.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...CUMULONIMBUS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN SANTO DOMINGO SINCE 20/0928 UTC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING IN LA ROMANA AT 20/1400 UTC. FEW LOW CLOUDS IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXIST FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA...AND TO GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE SECOND 24 HOURS AND OPEN ITSELF INTO A RIDGE BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO- WEST ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS...GIVING WESTERLY WIND FLOW.


...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N76W. THIS IS THE SAME CYCLONIC CENTER THAT WAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AT LEAST 24 TO 36 HOURS AGO. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 90W. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SUPPORT A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N77W...AND THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE 1010 MB LOW CENTER...THROUGH 32N74W TO 30N74W...TO ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W...TO CUBA NEAR 23N79W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N83W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W...AND IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 3.70 AT NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 26N30W...TO AN 19N48W...TO 20N60W.

A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N45W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 68W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 24N71W 24N67W 16N50W 16N35W. INFORMATION ABOUT THE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IS INCLUDED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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