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000
AXNT20 KNHC 030530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 4N20W TO 3N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 3N25W TO 3N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 18W- 24W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 42W-50W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N86W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE LATEST GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY SHOWS IFR CONDITIONS INLAND W OF TAMPICO MEXICO... BUT NOT OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO NORTH CAROLINA PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N77W TO NE NICARAGUA AT 15N83W TO S NICARAGUA AT 11N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR...W HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 86W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 4N- 8N BETWEEN 73W-78W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MOSTLY OVER HAITI DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER E CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N60W TO E CUBA AT 21N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N51W. ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N27W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N55W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 31N52W WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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