Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...


...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...

THE 12-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10 FEET TO 13 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO ONCE THE EVENT BEGINS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF LIBERIA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 7N13W...5N20W 4N35W 7N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 6N TO 12N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 44W EASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 6N TO 12N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W INCLUDING INLAND/COASTAL AREAS FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO GUYANA.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT OF 24 HOURS AGO NOW PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 31N85W...TO 27N87W 23N91W 19N95W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 31N85W...TO 27N87W 23N91W 19N95W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST... INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KHQI...KVQT... KATP...AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W...TO 19N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST OF 22N80W 18N82W 16N84W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N75W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THIS WIND FLOW IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 32N42W TO 23N43W 14N45W AND TO 10N49W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW...FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W EASTWARD...FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND FROM 19N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.15 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO... 0.06 IN ST. THOMAS...0.05 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.02 IN TRINIDAD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N80W... BEYOND 8N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...REMNANT RAINSHOWERS...FROM EARLIER SCATTERED STRONG...ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN TRADE WIND FLOW...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.


...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N75W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS EVENTUALLY BECOMES LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE 23N75W IN THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W...TO 19N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST OF 22N80W 18N82W 16N84W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.56 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 25N73W...TO 22N77W AT THE COAST OF CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N75W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N59W TO 27N65W...TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N81W. THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEYOND 32N73W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N59W TO 27N65W...TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N81W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 23N43W 14N45W AND TO 10N49W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 27N30W 22N36W AND 20N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 22W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 28W AND 42W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 48W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 6N TO 12N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W INCLUDING INLAND/COASTAL AREAS FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO GUYANA.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N15W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 17N27W JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

Home