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AXNT20 KNHC 230605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...AT 23/0300 UTC...WAS NEAR 13.4N 51.4W...ABOUT 590 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 64W IN VENEZUELA AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A GALE WARNING EXISTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10 TO 14 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N43W 17N42W 13N40W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W...TO THE SOUTH OF 21N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS...CENTRAL NICARAGUA...AND WESTERN COSTA RICA. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 17N80W CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS EL SALVADOR AND ITS EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA BORDER AND 94W FROM 16N TO 17N. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN THAT AREA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W TO 13N20W 9N24W AND 7N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N32W TO 5N37W AND 6N41W...AND ALONG 10N50W 9N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 32W AND 37W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CENTER SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT MEANDERS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 88W AND 96W IN EASTERN TEXAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N38W...TO 29N56W...TO 32N77W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KXIH...KMDJ...AND KIPN. A CLOUD CEILING IS AT 6500 FEET AT KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS AND NEARBY AREAS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY MORE INLAND IN TEXAS. A FEW SITES ARE REPORTING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS SUCH AS IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA AND IN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. A CEILING AT 6500 FEET IS BEING OBSERVED AT ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. NO LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 19N75W BETWEEN CUBA AND HAITI...AND ALONG 80W FROM 20N TO 21N OFF THE COAST OF CUBA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W AT THE COAST OF COLOMBIA... TO PANAMA NEAR 8N81W...AND BEYOND 8N86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W...FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF PANAMA TO NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 17N80W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...ENDING UP IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 48 HOURS. ANY AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA AS THE CYCLONIC CENTER MOVES MORE AND MORE AWAY FROM THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA...FROM A 28N74W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO HAITI BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ABOUT 150 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW...FROM 73W EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N46W TO 30N45W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N25W TO 26N34W AND 25N42W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 30W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.99 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N38W...TO 29N56W...TO 32N77W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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