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AXNT20 KNHC 211750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 7N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N16W TO 5N30W TO TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 11W-23W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 23W-48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 48W-60W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 38N84W PRODUCING 10-15 KT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA FROM 24N80W TO 22N84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND S FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N E OF 82W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N- 28N E OF 85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS N OF CORPUS CHRISTI EXTENDING 60 NM OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 93W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD OVER THE S GULF S OF 27N WITH SURFACE RETURN FLOW.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 22N84W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 62W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 14N79W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN.


...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM N OF FRONT. A 1026 NM HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N45W. A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N14W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N14W ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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