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AXNT20 KNHC 062335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 94W ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE DISCONTINUED SAT MORNING AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W TO 03N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 00N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ MAINLY W OF 15W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AT 06/1800 UTC IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN AND BECAME STATIONARY FROM 19N93W TO 24N88W TO 27N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO KENTUCKY. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MAINLY N OF THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH BY SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLANTIC COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE E ATLANTIC THROUGH THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC REACHING THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 13N71W TO E COSTA RICA NEAR 14N84W. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.


...HISPANIOLA...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLANTIC AS OF 06/1800 UTC. IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO 28N78W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO 31N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A BROAD 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N35W EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW S OF THE SURFACE HIGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N42W TO 20N43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN 40W-45W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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