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AXNT20 KNHC 211752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N33W TO 7N34W. THE WAVE IS MOVING AT 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT MOIST AREA N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. FURTHER N...METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 18N E OF 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 30W-37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N56W TO 10N59W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 6N-23N BETWEEN 48W-60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 54W-64W TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N79W TO 10N79W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO A 1011 MB LOW S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N23W TO 11N30W TO 7N42W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N42W TO 9N50W TO 10N57W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N- 19N BETWEEN 17W-25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 25W-30W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE CENTRAL FLORIDA. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 84W-90W. FURTHER E... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW GULF AT 27N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS..AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION...AND A SURFACE TROUGH TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE TO THE NE GULF ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING TRADES OF 5-15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER HAS REACHED BARBADOS. SEE ABOVE. MOISTURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA
...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 65W-75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N81W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS S OF HISPANIOLA ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BOTH WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.


...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ALSO EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1011 MB LOW S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO 28N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N24W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NW OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 45W-50W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N40W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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