AXNT20 KNHC 280542

205 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Two is centered near 29.5N 76.4W at 28/0600 UTC or about 270 nm SE of Charleston South Carolina and about 275 nm SE of Hilton Head Island South Carolina moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 26N to 31N between 74W and 77W. See latestNHCintermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headersMIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 03N21W to 14N19W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 18W and 25W andwas noted in the Dakar Senegal upper air time section analyses. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 13W and 17W.

Tropical wave extends from 04N55W to 11N56W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 54W and58W on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchoredeast of the Lesser Antilles near 15N60W. Isolated moderate convection is inland across northern Brazil from the Equator to 04N between 53W and 58W.

Tropical wave extends from 09N71W to 17N70W moving W at 20 kt. The wave continues to interact with an upper level trough overthe central Caribbean Sea and coincides with an area of maximum 700 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis over portions of western Venezuela. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N to 15N between 67W and 73W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 06N20W. The ITCZ axis extends from 05N22W to 02N32W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 46W and 53W.


GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level low and associated troughing is over the central US plains that supports a broad middle to upper level diffluent zone over eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi River valley. This diffluence aloft along with lower level moisture and instability is supporting a squall line of scattered to broken tstms extending from 29N94W to the Texas coast near 29N97W. Scattered showers surround the strongest convection mainly N of 27N W of 92W in the NW Gulf waters. Other isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the western Gulf W of 91W from earlier convection initiated across eastern Mexico. Much of the basin is experiencing moderate to fresh E-SE winds and this synoptic pattern is expected through Sunday. Thereafter...surface ridging will build south along 90W decreasing winds slightly...maintaining light to gentle anticyclonic flow and overall stable conditions.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the central Caribbean with primarily dry and stable NW flow influencing much of the basin W of 77W. Conditions W of 77W remain fairly tranquil with only a few isolated showers occurring S-SW of Jamaica from 14N to 17N between 76W and 82W. E of 77W...maximum middle to upper level diffluence along with the presence of a tropical wave along 71W is providing for scattered showers and isolated tstms between 60W and 73W. The current upper level trough will gradually lift N of 20N by Monday...however upper level troughing will persist across the SW North Atlc off the coast of Florida with a relatively weak diffluent environment remaining E of 75W across Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the US/UK Virgin Islands through Tuesday. This will result is increased probabilities of precipitation through the middle to next week across the north- central and NE Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are occurringacross the island and adjacent coastal waters. The presence of a tropical wave along 71W is also focusing low- levelmoisture convergence across the island. Given the dynamicsat all levels in the vicinity of Hispaniola during thenext 24 hours...continued precipitation is expected throughSaturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Depression Two continues to provide focus for the SWNorth Atlc waters this evening as it tracks towards the SEUScoast. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc isunder the influence of a relatively diffluent environment aloft due to a middle to upper level low and trough axis extending from 30N81W to 21N74W. Scattered showers and isolatedtstms are occurring N of 18N between 61W and 73W. Theupper level troughing is expected to persist off the coastofFLorida through Tuesday. Farther east...a pair of 1024mbhigh centers influence the central and eastern Atlc centered near 30N37W and 29N48W. Overall...fair weather conditions prevail E of 55W.

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