AXNT20 KNHC 310605
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N32W
to a 1009 mb low near 12N31W. Wave and low are moving west 10 to
15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb low
as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge
of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are from 8N-15N between 30W-36W.
Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 58W
from 11N-21N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models
and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection are west of the wave axis over the
E Caribbean from 12N-20N between 58W-65W.
The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N17W to the 1009 mb low near 12N31W to 08N42W
where the ITCZ begins and continues to 10N50W to 12N54W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection in vicinity of the
monsoon trough along the coast of western Africa from 12N-18N
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 mb high is centered over the E Gulf of Mexico near 27N86W.
5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are noted around the high. Scattered
showers remain over the SE Gulf of Mexico and W Cuba from 22N-
27N between 81W-85W. In the upper levels...an upper level high
is centered over the NE Gulf near 28N87W. Strong subsidence is
over the central Gulf with upper level moisture elsewhere.
Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface high to be
replaced by a surface ridge. Also expect an upper level low
presently over the the Bahamas to advect over to S Florida with
A tropical wave just east of the Lesser Antilles is producing
convection over the E Caribbean. See above. 10-25 kt tradewinds
are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast
of N Colombia and weakest winds just south of Cuba. Isolated
moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean from 10N-12N
between 75W-84W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is
centered over the central Bahamas near 23N76W. Scattered
moderate convection is over E Cuba N of 21N between 76W-79W.
Scattered showers are elsewhere over the central Caribbean north
of 15N between 72W-88W. Expect the tropical wave to be the
dominate weather producer over the Caribbean Sea for the next
Currently, isolated showers and possible thunderstorms are over
Hispaniola. The tropical wave just E of the Lesser Antilles will
produce convection over Hispaniola tonight through Tue.
A surface trough is over the central Bahamas from 25N79W to
21N79W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the
trough axis. A 1027 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 33N47W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level low is centered over the central Bahamas near 23N76W. An
upper level high is centered N of Puerto Rico near 22N65W.
Another upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic
near 30N42W. Expect the Bahama upper level low to move to S
Florida in 24 hours with convection. Also expect the tropical
waves to move west with convection.
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