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000
AXNT20 KNHC 042351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC THU. A GALE IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT AT 0000 UTC FRI AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AT 0600 UTC THU WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE W OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N91W TO 25N97W. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI...AS THE FRONT MOVES SE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO 2N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4S BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM 1S- 4S BETWEEN 41W-46W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND WARM ADVECTION. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE GULF COAST FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVEL...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF N OF FRONT AT 0600 UTC THU AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W.


...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N51W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 27N50W TO 26N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 47N10W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-4S BETWEEN 43W-57W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 35N23W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO BE PREDOMINATELY N OF 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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