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AXNT20 KNHC 020007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 2100 UTC. AT 2/0000 UTC THE LOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER IS NEAR 20.5N 93.7W...HOLDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 24N IN THE SW GULF AND EXTEND INLAND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N24W TO 6N26W...MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. ENHANCED METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 25W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N42W TO 10N47W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. ENHANCED METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE AXIS S OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N59W TO 9N59W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ITS SOUTHERN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 54W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N70W TO 11N70W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W TO 6N34W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N34W TO 10N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. FOR CONVECTION INFORMATION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF TO SUPPORT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 30N87W TO 28N82W AND A LINE FROM 29N90W TO 23N83W. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT PREVAILS. RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W-SW GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS HAITI AND COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 10-15 KT SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE SE BASIN.


...HISPANIOLA...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IN HAITI AND COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE CARIBBEAN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N48W TO 25N51W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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