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000
AXNT20 KNHC 262333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
733 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 15N29W to 06N30W, moving W at 20 kt within the
last 24 hours. Saharan dust prevails along this wave inhibiting
convection development.

A tropical wave is moving over the SW Caribbean with axis from
15N76W into the EPAC near 04N78W, moving W at 20 kt within the
last 24 hours. The wave coincides with a broad inverted trough at
700 mb and a moist environment from surface to 850 mb as shown by
CIRA LPW imagery. Despite this, no significant convection is
related to this wave as strong deep-layer wind shear prevails in
the area.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W to 06N30W where the ITCZ begins and extends
to 07N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between
37W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough that extends from 28N88W to 23N90W continues to
generate scattered showers from 23N-27N between 88W-92W. To the E,
a 1021 mb surface high is centered over the NE Gulf near 28N86W.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle variable winds covering the
basin. The surface ridge and fair weather will persist through
the middle of the week across the basin except for the SW portion,
where a weak surface heat trough will develop every evening with
convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low centered over Central America is supporting
scattered moderate convection across the area affecting also the
SW Caribbean waters S of 17N between 79W-88W. To the E, a tropical
wave extends from the southern Caribbean, over Panama, then into
the EPAC. Please refer to the section above for details. Another
upper-level low is centered NE of Puerto Rico extending its trough
over the eastern portion of the island from 18N66W to 18N82W.
This trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the Greater Antilles. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades across the basin. Expect for fresh to strong winds to pulse
across the southern waters from 11.5N-15N between 70W-78W every
afternoon/evening during the next few days. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level low centered NE of Puerto Rico extends its trough
SW S of Hispaniola, which combined with shallow moisture in the
trade wind flow support scattered showers over the island. The low
is expected to move NE within the next 24 hours. Daytime heating
and low-level moisture will continue to generate convection across
the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends across the whole basin, anchored by a 1037
mb high centered N of the Azores near 43N30W. A surface trough
extends from 21N51W to 18N52W with isolated convection. A tropical
wave is moving over the central Atlantic. Please refer to the
section above for details. Expect for the surface ridge to persist
through the middle of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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