AXNT20 KNHC 261725

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
124 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.



A 1010 mb surface low is intensifying across the west Atlantic,
centered near 22N67W. Surface ridging prevails to the north with
axis along 32N. The pressure gradient between these features is
producing gale-force winds from 25N-27N between 63W-69W. As the
low moves northward, the gale winds will follow. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near 06N10W
to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 00N29W to 02S42W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails within 50 nm on either side
of the ITCZ.



A surface ridge extends across the basin, anchored over the west
Atlantic by a 1027 mb high near 34N69W. With this, a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin with fair
weather. Little change is expected through the next 24-48 hours.


A 1010 mb surface low is centered over the west Atlantic north of
La Mona Passage extending its trough south to 17N68W. No
significant convection is related to this feature at this time.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most
of the basin except south of 13N between 74W-78W where moderate to
fresh winds are noted. Expect for the trough to continue moving
northward with the low away from the Caribbean. Fair weather will
prevail across the basin.


Fair weather prevails across the island at this time as the
surface low remains to the north of the island. The low will
continue moving northward during the next 24 hours. With this,
fair weather will prevail across the island.


A surface ridge extends across the west Atlantic anchored by a
1027 mb high near 33N69W. To the southeast, a surface low is
centered near 22N67W with surface trough extending from 29N67W to
the low to 19N67W. Scattered showers prevail across the northern
portion of the trough north of 20N and between 60W-70W. Gale-force
winds are depicted in scatterometer data over the northern
semicircle of the low. Please refer to the section above for
details. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface
ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high near 29N26W. Expect during the
next 24 hours for the low to continue moving northward enhancing
convection/winds/seas. Surface ridging will prevail elsewhere.

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