AXNT20 KNHC 241703

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1203 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

A strong area of low pressure analyzed at 986 mb offshore of the
New Jersey coast near 39N74W is in association with a cold front
extending into the discussion area near 32N68W. The front
continues S-SW to 26N69W to the Windward Passage near 20N74W then
SW to the coast of SE Nicaragua. Near gale to gale force S-SW
winds are occurring immediately east of the cold front across
portions of the SW North Atlc. Gale force winds are forecast to
remain associated with the front through Wednesday. In
addition...a surface trough is analyzed W of the cold front from
32N71W to 27N73W. Near gale to gale force W-NW winds are occurring
generally N of 29N with this feature. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
06N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N18W to 01N30W to the Equator near 41W. Scattered moderate
convection is S of 06N E between the Prime Meridian and 02W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is S of 03N between 19W-
30W...and S of 06N between 30W-51W.


Middle to upper level ridging continues to support weak surface
ridging at the surface with relatively clear skies and tranquil
conditions expected through this evening into Wednesday. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds prevail generally E of 94W...while fresh
to strong southerly winds are expected across the far western Gulf
waters. The southerly winds will gradually spread eastward through
Wednesday morning as the next cold front is expected to emerge
off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by the afternoon. Winds behind
the front will shift northerly as high pressure builds in across
the lower Mississippi River valley Thursday into Friday.

Primarily W-NW flow aloft prevails over the entire Caribbean basin
with water vapor imagery indicated very dry and stable air in
place over the region. However...a middle to upper level trough is
noted N of the basin over the SW North Atlc that supports a cold
front analyzed from the Turks and Caicos islands near 22N72W to
the Windward Passage then SW to the SE coast of Nicaragua near
11N84W. With upper level dynamics fairly stable...the front
continues to carry broken to occasional overcast skies and
possible shallow low-level isolated showers within generally 120
nm either side of the front. Farther east...weak low-level
convergence is generating cloudiness and possible isolated
showers across the eastern Caribbean...however no significant deep
convection is expected. Otherwise...the front has disrupted the
usual trade wind flow with generally light to moderate southerly
winds E of the front...and light to moderate northerly winds
expected W of the front through Wednesday as the front progresses

Broken to overcast low clouds with possible isolated showers are
expected this afternoon and evening as a cold front begins to
move across island. Middle to upper level dry and stable NW flow
prevails which will limit any significant deep convection. With
frontal passage...by Wednesday high pressure will build in across
the region and continued dry conditions are anticipated.

A negatively tilted middle to upper level trough is noted on water
vapor imagery over the SW North Atlc region with axis extending
from a mid-level vorticity maximum near 37N73W to a base near
26N67W. The troughing supports a cold front extending from 32N68W
to 24N70W to the Windward Passage near 20N74W and into the SW
Caribbean Sea. As mentioned in the Special Features section...near
gale to gale force wind are occurring on both side of the front at
this time. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of
24N within 240 nm E of the front...while isolated showers are
occurring within 180 nm E of the front S of 24N. Mostly fresh to
strong W to NW winds are occurring across the remainder of the SW
North Atlc to the W of the front. High pressure is expected to
build in across the region through Wednesday into Wednesday night
gradually ushering in light to moderate anticyclonic winds.
Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is
under the influence of a pair of surface ridges. One surface ridge
is anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 27N49W and the other
is a 1029 mb high centered near 33N20W extending a ridge axis SW
to 23N34W.

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