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AXNT20 KNHC 311730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO 1S27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-3S BETWEEN 0W-20W...AND FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN 34W-45W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 97W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NW GULF DUE TO RETURN FLOW...WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 21N70W TO 19N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA. FURTHER E... SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 60W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND AS A FRONT REMAINS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W TO 29N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N45W TO 24N55W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 21N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N40W TO 20N40W. A 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N18W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 35W. OF INTEREST OVER THE THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-80W SUPPORTING THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-45W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE N OF 31N...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT CONTINUES DRIFT E TO 31N42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA

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