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AXNT20 KNHC 291056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW THE FORECAST THAT IS VALID UNTIL 30/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF... NORTHEASTERLY NEAR GALE LOCALLY GALE IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 05N16W AND 04N26W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 04N26W 04N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 05W AND 12W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 01N BETWEEN 10W AND 11W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE POINTS FROM 03N46W TO 03N52W TO 08N60W TO 03N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS FROM 28N SOUTHWARD FROM 87W WESTWARD.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS FROM 90W EASTWARD. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KDLP....KMIS...AND KMDJ.

IFR CONDITIONS...KVBS...KVQT...KEIR...AND KSPR.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG....KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS...KHHV... KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGHB...AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR AND SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN BOOTHVILLE. MVFR IS MIXED WITH IFR ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA...IFR IN GULF SHORES. MVFR IN EVERGREEN. FLORIDA...MVFR IN DESTIN. LIFR IN THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...IN MARIANNA...AND IN APALACHICOLA. IFR IN PERRY. LIFR IN BROOKSVILLE. MVFR AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT.


...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 64W...FROM THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 62W AND 73W... INCLUDING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 20N IN HAITI TO 24N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA...CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...NO NEW OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE SINCE THE LAST TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 30 TO 36 HOURS OR SO. A TROUGH WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME AFTER THAT. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO JAMAICA...AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N31W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N31W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 33N29W AND 30N26W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N26W TO 22N30W 18N40W 18N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 27W AND 341W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE REST OF THE COLD FRONT.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 64W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N54W 29N55W 25N54W 22N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N61W 26N62W 24N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N71W 24N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N69W 29N72W 26N73W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.04 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... TO 13N34W AND 13N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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