AXNT20 KNHC 010605

205 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC.


Tropical wave in the eastern Tropical Atlantic extends along 26W from 2N-11N moving west near 20 kt. Wave is engulfed by Saharan dry air and dust, which is hindering deep convection.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic along 51W from 4N- 13N moving west near 20 kt. Wave is embedded within a surge of deep moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 5N-10N between 50W and 55W.

Tropical wave is E of the Windward Islands with axis along 61W moving west near 15 kt. Wave is embedded within a surge of deep moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 7N-10N between 55W and 61W.

Tropical wave over Central America with axis along 85W moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection and thunderstorms are affecting southern Honduras, NW Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.


The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W to east of a tropical wave near 4N23W. The ITCZ begins west of the tropical wave near 3N26W and then continues along 2N40W to South America near 2N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 NM either side of the ITCZ between 25W-42W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 5N-10N E of 15W.



Weak surface high pressure prevails across the central and eastern Gulf being anchored by a 1015 mb high near 27N84W while low pressure along Mexico extends to the western Gulf. Gentle variable wind is E of 90W while SE gentle to moderate winds dominate W of 90W. At the middle to upper levels, ridging covering the Gulf and a trough over the SE CONUS with base extending S into the Caribbean generate a diffluent environment that support scattered moderate convection N of 25N W of 93W. Surface ridging will persist through Thursday.


The upper trough over the SE CONUS extends across Florida and then S into the Caribbean W of 70W. A low amplitude upper ridge extends N from South America and cover the remainder of the Caribbean. A diffluent environment between this two features aloft support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and adjacent waters, including the Mona and Windward passages. Scattered to isolated showers are over the remainder central and eastern basin. Similar shower activity is over the SW Caribbean S of 13N being supported by the E Pacific monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh trade winds are across the eastern basin while light and to moderate trades are W of 75W. Over the S Central Caribbean, the latest scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds S of 14N between 65W and 74W. Winds are expected to increase between Colombia and Jamaica on Wednesday night then expanding across the west Caribbean toward Cuba by the weekend.


Scattered showers and thunderstorms are across Hispaniola adjacent waters while isolated showers are likely across the island. This activity is driven by moisture in the region and a diffluent environment aloft. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the week.


An upper trough over the SE CONUS covers the SW N Atlantic with a narrow upper ridge to the east. The diffluent area between these upper features is generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms from 18N-28N between 65W-72W. An upper trough in the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front that enters the east Atlantic near 30N27W and extends along 26N36W to 26N43W where it becomes stationary to 29N53W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 27N31W along 25N40W to 25N47W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high near 34N48W. A weak surface ridge will build from Bermuda to northeast Florida tonight through Thursday.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ NR