Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO 26N92W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY 27/1200 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 07N21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 04W-13W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION S-SW TO EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER SW TO 26N92W TO THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. WITH THE SURFACE FORCING IN PLACE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASING ACROSS THE BASIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A 300 NM WIDE SWATH ON BOTH SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR 29N83W TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE FRONT GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS WERE NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE FRONT. THESE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN VENEZUELA N-NW TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. MUCH OF THE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS AN OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LENDING TO MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES THIS MORNING.


...HISPANIOLA... LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING...HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION S-SW TO EASTERN TEXAS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTHERLY FLOW OF PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 70W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 37N40W TO A BASE NEAR 22N51W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N38W TO 24N45W TO 21N58W AND BECOMES DIFFUSE TO THE W-NW TO 27N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EAST AND 90 NM WEST OF THE FRONT E OF 46W...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY W OF 46W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N54W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 40W-75W. FINALLY...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N18W IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER GENERALLY E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ HUFFMAN

Home