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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
602 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa last night. Its axis extends from 13N17W to 04N18W. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, however intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust limit convection to scattered showers and tstms from 03N to 13N E of 21W.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 10N27W to 02N27W, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in a moderate moist environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW and is under an area of diffluent flow aloft, which is supporting scattered showers from 02N-10N between 22W and 35W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 11N43W to 01N45W, moving W at 5-10 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. However, the CIRA LPW imagery show some dry air in the wave environment, which coincide with Meteosat enhanced imagery of Saharan dry air and dust. This is supporting lack of deep convection at the moment.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from 18N66W to inland Venezuela near 08N67W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear and is in a moderate moist environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW. Isolated showers are between 63W and 71W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis extending from 20N81W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W, moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of neutral to favorable wind shear and is in a moderate moist environment with patches of dry air mainly N of 14N. Numerous heavy showers and tstms are in the SW Caribbean W of 80W, but mainly associated with the EPAC monsoon trough.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis begins near 08N19W and continues to 07N33W to 07N43W to 05N52W. For convection information see the tropical waves section. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers are from 05N to 03S between 35W and 43W and within 120 nm N of the ITCZ W of 46W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad middle to upper level trough over the eastern USA extends S to a base over the northern Gulf of Mexico, thus supporting a cold front extending across northern Florida to 29N85W where it transitions to a stationary that continues westward towards the coast of Texas near 28N96W. This frontal boundary is supporting isolated showers and tstms along the northern coastal waters of the Gulf. A middle level low over the SW Gulf reflects as a surface trough along 24N92W to 18N94W, which along with upper level diffluence continue to support heavy showers and tstms over the W Gulf S of 27N, including the Bay of Campeche where convection is stronger and with possible gusty winds near the area of Veracruz. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main features in the basin are two tropical waves already discussed in the waves section above. Aside from the convective activity associated with it, latest scatterometer data continue to show fresh to strong winds in the vicinity of the waves S of 17N, increasing to near gale winds S of 14N. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are in the lee of Cuba between 78W and 83W. Isolated showers are elsewhere between the Windward Passage and the Leeward Islands. The westernmost wave will move over EPAC waters within 18 hours while the easternmost wave races towards the central basin. A new tropical wave will enter the SE Caribbean waters tonight.


...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level southerly winds continue to advect moisture to Hispaniola, thus supporting cloudiness with possible isolated showers. Heavy showers and tstms are expected to develop across the Island today as a tropical wave moves across the central Caribbean waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are crossing the tropical Atlantic waters. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Otherwise, the remainder of the Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 32N48W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Ramos

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