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000
AXNT20 KNHC 221042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
542 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 994 mb area of low pressure across the western North Atlc
extends a cold front into the discussion area near 32N51W. The
front continues SW to 26N55W to 21N67W. Near gale to gale force
SW winds are occurring N of 26N within 180 nm E of the front. The
gale force conditions are expected to move N of the area by
23/0600 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to
05N12W to 02N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 02N17W to 01N23W to 02N35W to the Equator near 44W.
Scattered moderate convection is S of 04N between 19W-28W...and
from 02N-05N between 33W-36W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 03N-08N between 47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A vigorous middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor
imagery over portions of the SE CONUS and NE Gulf waters with the
associated trough axis dipping southward a base over the Yucatan
Channel region. The troughing supports a broad area of surface
low pressure focused on a 1008 mb low centered in the NE Gulf near
29N85W with a cold front extending S-SW to 25N85W to the NE tip of
the Yucatan peninsula near 21N87W. Numerous showers and scattered
tstms are occurring E of the front to 81W. The convection is
largely enhanced by strong middle to upper level diffluence.
Otherwise...the western half of the basin is under the influence
of gentle to fresh NW winds and surface ridging anchored across
the SW Gulf waters and interior portions of Mexico with mostly
clear skies prevailing W of 90W. Looking ahead...the cold front is
forecast to move across Florida and into the SW North Atlc waters
by Thursday morning. The next cold front is forecast to move off
the Texas and Louisiana coast by Friday night into early Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Overall the Caribbean basin remains under fairly tranquil
conditions this morning with the exception of the eastern and far
northwestern waters. A cold front lies to the N of Puerto Rico
from 23N60W to 22N63W. A surface trough also extends from the cold
front near 23N57W to 20N58W to 12N62W and provides focus for
isolated showers across the Windward Islands. Mostly northerly
winds prevail across the eastern Caribbean and Atlc moisture and
cloudiness with embedded isolated showers are occurring N of 13 E
of 70W. Across the NW Caribbean...a cold front is analyzed across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the western region of the Yucatan
Channel. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring NW of a line
from western Cuba near 22N81W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W.
The front will introduce fresh to occasional strong W-NW winds
through Wednesday night into early Thursday. Otherwise...dry and
stable air aloft on NW flow coupled with gentle to moderate
northerly winds are prevailing and expected to persist through
Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers are expected as persistent N-NE winds will
continue to feed Atlc moisture across northern portions of the
island that will result in these showers through Wednesday
afternoon. An approaching cold front from the west on Thursday
will increase cloudiness and probability of convective
precipitation.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level low is centered across the central North
Atlc near 33N56W that supports the Special Features 994 mb low
centered near 35N55W and the associated cold front producing the
near gale to gale force conditions. Scattered showers and tstms
are occurring E of the front and E of a surface trough from 24N57W
to 13N61W. The activity remains generally N of 12N between 46W-
57W. To the west...across much of the SW North Atlc...weak
surface ridging anchored by a 1022 mb high anchored off the New
England coast near 39N70W maintains gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds as an area of low pressure continues to develop
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As the low pressure moves
eastward through Wednesday night into Thursday...SE winds are
expected to increase W of 70W. Finally...the remainder of the
eastern Atlc is under the influence of another surface ridge
anchored by a 1027 mb high centered across the Azores near
38W27W. The ridge axis extends S-SW from the high to 30N32N to
10N37W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN


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