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AXNT20 KNHC 171038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 35.1N 55.4W AT 17/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 500 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID WEAKENING ON THURSDAY. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO LOSE HURRICANE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-37N BETWEEN 53W-58W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N35W...ACROSS THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 8N37W AND MOVES WEST AT 15- 20 KT. BOTH METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATE INTRUSION OF SAHARAN DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION. MAINLY MODERATE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED COINCIDING WITH PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 32W-37W AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 284 NM E-NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N55W TO 12N57W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN REGION OF THE WAVE FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 53W-58W. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HINDERS DEEP CONVECTION ELSEWHERE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 12N30W TO 10N44W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N44W TO 8N54W TO VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-13N E OF 23W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH...A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 88W AS WELL AS N OF 24N E OF 88W. ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ANOTHER REGION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 22N92W TO 17N93W. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF DIMINISHED TO 1015 MB NEAR 26N90W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH STARTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE S- SE CONUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS DURING THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 17N BETWEEN 71W-83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAILS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRADES OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.


...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BEING SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE REGION AS WELL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH...A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC WHICH ALONG ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 74W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS MOVED FROM HISPANIOLA TO NE ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 19N-22N BETWEEN 67W-71W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE WAVES SECTION...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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