AXNT20 KNHC 240559

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


...GALE WARNING Southwest North Atlantic...

Strong low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states is dragging a
cold front from 31N71W to the S Bahamas to E Cuba near 21N77W.
SW winds of 30-40 KT and seas of 10-16 FT are occurring within
150 NM east of the front and N of 23.5N. Gale force winds are
forecast to remain associated with the front through 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough passes W Africa near 09N13W to 03N19W. The
ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 01N30W to 01N40W, to the coast of
South America near 01S44W. Isolated moderate convection is from
01S-05N between 25W-45W.



Strong low pressure moving across the Mid-Atlantic states is
producing NW winds of 20-30 KT over the E Gulf E of 87W with
seas of 8-18 ft. In contrast, over the Bay of Campeche, a 1017
mb high is centered near 20N94W producing only 10 kt
anticyclonic surface winds. Mostly fair weather is over the
Gulf. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is producing mostly
zonal flow with very strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for
the surface high to move to the SE Gulf near 24N86W with 10 kt
anticyclonic surface winds, while the W Gulf changes to 15-25 kt
S surface winds. Also expect fair weather to persist.


A cold front extends from E Cuba near 21N77W to 18N81W to the
coast of Nicaragua near 13N83W. Scattered showers are within 90
nm E of front. Broken low clouds are over the NW Caribbean W of
front. Elsewhere, scattered showers are inland over W Panama. 20
kt NW surface winds are over the NW Caribbean W of front. 10-15
kt southerly winds are over the remainder of the central and E
Caribbean. In the upper levels, zonal flow with very strong
subsidence is noted. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to
extend from Hispaniola to Costa Rica with showers. Also expect
scattered showers to advect to the E Caribbean.


Mostly fair weather is presently over Hispaniola. Expect the
cold front to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the island Tue.


A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N71W to the S Bahamas
to E Cuba near 21N77W. A gale is E of front. See above.
Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm E of front N of
24N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 150 nm E of front S
of 24N. Broken low clouds are over the W Atlantic W of front. A
1018 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 26N53W. A surface
trough extends from 31N39W 26N46W. A 1031 mb high is over the E
Atlantic near 32N20W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 20N W of 60W supporting
the surface front. Expect the cold front in 24 hours to extend
from 31N60W to Hispaniola with convection.

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