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000
AXNT20 KNHC 260557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave over Africa extends from 5N12W to 14N8W moving west-northwest 10 to 15 kt. Wave is in the vicinity of a 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 75/90 NM of the trough axis north of 6N to inland over west Africa.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from 2N40W to 12N38W moving west-northwest near 15 kt. Wave coincides with a lowly amplified 700 mb trough and along the leading edge of a low amplitude area of deep moisture. Any convection in the vicinity is associated with the ITCZ not the tropical wave.

Tropical wave is inland over South America along 63W/64W south of 11N moving west near 15 kt. Wave is in the vicinity of a 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean extends along 79W south of 17N across Panama into the east Pacific region moving west less than 5 kt. Wave is west of a 700 mb trough and is embedded within a low amplitude area of deep moisture. Any convection in the vicinity is associated with the upper trough not the tropical wave.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of west Africa near 9N13W into the east Tropical Atlantic along 6N17W to 5N21W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 5N28W to the tropical wave near 6N36W then resumes west of the wave near 5N41W to South America near 4N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 5N-10N between 44W-51W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 16W-21W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 2N-10N between 27W-51W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper ridge anchored in the east Pacific region extends across Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico near Tampico to over the southeast CONUS near the central Louisiana while an upper trough covers the far east Gulf of Mexico across Florida into the west Atlantic. This is giving the Gulf northwest flow aloft. The upper ridge is advecting moisture across the far west Gulf generating numerous showers/scattered thunderstorms inland over Mexico and south Texas with scattered showers in the Gulf waters from 23N-28N west of 96W. A seabreeze surface trough has moved across the Florida peninsula into the far east Gulf generating isolated showers/thunderstorms within 45 NM of line from the Lower Florida Keys to 27N84W. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across northeast Florida to the Texas/Mexico border. The surface ridge will persist into the weekend meandering slightly.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A highly amplified upper trough extends from the west Atlantic across central Cuba over the west Caribbean covering the area west of 73W while an upper ridge extends from over South America across the Lesser Antilles into the west-central Atlantic covering the remainder of the Caribbean basin. The upper trough is generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms north of 18N to over Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica between 68W-77W and south of 14N to over Colombia between 70W-77W. Isolated showers/ thunderstorms are north of 17N to over Jamaica and Cuba between 77W-84W and south of 13N to the coast of Panama between 77W-82W. The tropical wave along 79W has become difficult to locate as it is interacting with the upper trough that covers the west Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will diminish across the basin late Thursday. Broad surface low will develop over the southwest Caribbean on Friday and Saturday.

HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are across the island tonight. The upper trough currently over central Cuba and the western Caribbean will broaden starting Friday night as the low and surface trough in the west Atlantic shifts westward. Lingering moisture and daytime heating could still generate showers and possible thunderstorms through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge covers the far west Atlantic anchored by a 1024 mb high near 32N75W and extending a ridge axis across northeast Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough covers the west Atlantic supporting a surface trough that extends from 29N67W through a weak 1016 mb low near 26N68W to 23N69W. The upper trough is generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms from the Bahamas to over Cuba between 73W-79W. An upper ridge is to the east extending from over South America across the Lesser Antilles and into the west-central Atlantic along 24N62W to beyond 32N55W. This is creating a diffluent environment over a portion of the west Atlantic generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 150/175 NM of line from Hispaniola near 20N71W to 31N65W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high near 36N48W. The west Atlantic surface trough will move northwest with the low reaching 28N74W Thursday, 28N75W Friday, then approaching the southeast CONUS Saturday and Sunday while dragging the surface trough through the Bahamas reaching the southeast Florida coast Saturday night.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ PAW

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