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000
AXNT20 KNHC 292353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING for the Gulf of Venezuela in about 30 hours...

The 30-HOUR forecast for the Gulf of Venezuela consists of NE-
to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights less than 8 feet.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 16N
southward, moving westward 15 KNOTS. No significant deep
convective precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17N52W 12N52W 08N50W,
moving westward 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: rainshowers
are possible from 10N to 20N between 50W and 59W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 65W/66W from 14N
southward moving westward 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 14N southward between 66W and 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N18W, 07N27W, and 08N34W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N34W to 10N39W, 07N50W, and 06N59W in Guyana.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
within 120 NM on either side of 11N16W 07N24W, and from 06N to
13N between 30W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center is in
Mexico near 21N100W. A trough extends from the cyclonic center to
24N95W in the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level trough passes through
southwestern Georgia to 26N87W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
trough passes through the Florida Panhandle, across extreme
southeastern Louisiana, to a 1013 MB low pressure center that is
near 29N92W, to the Texas Gulf coast along 29N. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the
Gulf of Mexico in the area that is to the north of the 21N100W-
24N95W trough and to the northwest of the southwestern Georgia-to-
26N87W trough.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: light rain in Brownsville. MVFR in Port Isabel and
Falfurrias. LOUISIANA: rain and thunder in Lafayette,New Iberia,
Patterson, in Port Fourchon, and in Galliano. MISSISSIPPI: VFR/NO
CEILINGS. ALABAMA: MVFR in Mobile. FLORIDA: rain in Pensacola.
rain and thunder in Punta Gorda.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 63W WESTWARD INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

A middle level to upper level trough extends from a 23N71W
Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center, across Haiti, into the
central part of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level southwesterly wind
flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N southward from 70W
westward. Convective precipitation: Numerous strong from 19N to
20N between 71W and 72W along the border of Haiti and the
Dominican Republic. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
in Cuba. Isolated moderate in the Atlantic Ocean from 26N
southward between 64W and 80W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
29/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.87 in
Trinidad, 0.53 in Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.11 in Freeport in the
Bahamas, and 0.03 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across the island, as
the upper level trough cuts across Haiti.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...scattered
cumulonimbus clouds/VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona/
Santo Domingo/La Romana: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS.
Punta Cana: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago and Puerto Plata: few
cumulonimbus clouds/VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current trough
and cyclonic wind flow, that are cutting across Hispaniola from
the Atlantic Ocean, will remain across the area for the next 48
hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that day one will
consist of south-to-southwest wind flow across Hispaniola. Day two
will consist of southeasterly wind flow across Hispaniola. The
GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that east-to-southeast wind
flow will cover the area for the next 48 hours.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 34N41W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward from
53W eastward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
mt

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