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AXNT20 KNHC 262327
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 7N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 6N30W TO 8N48W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N8N BETWEEN 27W-41W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N94W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH WITH FAIR WEATHER. ELSEWHERE RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXITING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT S FLORIDA TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ALSO EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TO HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N80W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS AT 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF FRONT WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 80W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA
... HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALOFT OVER THE ISLAND SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MORE PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO W CUBA AT 23N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS NEAR NASSAU. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT REACHING S FLORIDA. A LARGE 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 22N44W TO 17N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE THROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N- 26N BETWEEN 40W-52W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE NW WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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