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AXNT20 KNHC 112347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W SUPPORTED BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 9N16W 5N19W TO 2N223W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W 2N36W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 23W-45W AND FROM 1N- 3N BETWEEN 44W-49W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 16N85W TO 20N75W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AFFECTING E CUBA...W HISPANIOLA...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SE WHILE WEAKENING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N75W BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND MAINLY W OF 70W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E WHILE WEAKENING. WITH THIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N75W TO 32N56W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. TO THE E...A BROAD 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 32N30W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATED THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E WHILE WEAKENING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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