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AXNT20 KNHC 221043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0900 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 45.4W OR ABOUT 770 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 46W-48W. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-75W WITH SEAS 10-12 FT. A SHIP REPORTED 35 KT WINDS AT 0600 UTC NEAR 12N74W. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE CONDITIONS UNTIL 23/1200 UTC. SEE THE LATEST ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N37W TO 11N37W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N OF 15N HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N80W TO 10N80W MOVING W AT 20 KT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N91W TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT 8N93W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W TO 6N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 6N31W TO 11N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO FROM 11N48W TO 9N52W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 8N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 14W- 20W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 23W-30W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 31N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W TO E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 89W-94W. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. 5 -10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE ABOVE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S ALABAMA NEAR 31N88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 73W-76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E GUATEMALA AND W HONDURAS FROM 15N-16N BETWEEN 88W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.


...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL AND N BAHAMAS W OF 76W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N38W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N64 WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N51W ALSO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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