AXNT20 KNHC 292348
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
748 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Hurricane Gaston is centered near 31.2N 55.2W at 29/2100 UTC or
about 495 nm E of Bermuda and about 1450 nm W of the Azores moving
NNE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 28N-34N between
51W-58W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.
Tropical Depression Eight is centered near 33.5N 73.8W at 30/0000
UTC or about 130 nm SE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving NW
at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 33N-35N between 73W-76W. See latest
NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.
Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 24.0N 84.8W at 29/2100
UTC or about 170 nm WSW of Key West Florida and about 140 nm WNW of
Havana Cuba moving WNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-24N
between 82W-88W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.
The Monsoon Trough extends from 17N16W to 09N23W to 10N37W to
09N45W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N45W to 07N55W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 10N-19N between 13W-18W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 46W-52W. Isolated
moderate convection is elsewhere from 04N-12N between 21W-52W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
The primary concern is Tropical Depression Nine centered in the
SE Gulf waters this evening. The depression finds itself on the
eastern periphery of an upper level anticyclonic circulation
centered over the SE Gulf waters near 23N86W which will allow for
slow and gradual strengthening during the next several days.
Farther W-NW as the overall synoptic pattern of weaker surface
pressures continue across the basin...a weak 1011 mb low is
centered off the southern coast of Texas near 27N96W. A surface
trough extends from the low E-SE to 25N91W. Scattered showers and
tstms are occurring across the NW and north-central Gulf waters N
of 26N between 87W-97W. This convection is likely enhanced due to
middle to upper level diffluence associated with an upper level
low centered near 28N94W. Otherwise...outside of the low pressure
areas previously mentioned...recent observations and earlier
scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh E to NE winds
across the NE Gulf and gentle to moderate cyclonic winds across
the western Gulf in association with the surface troughing through
the overnight hours. By Tuesday...T.D. Nine is expected across
central portions of the basin and will begin re-curving to the NE
and in the general direction of the Florida Big Bend region...
reaching the Florida coast Thursday afternoon.
An upper level ridge axis extends from over Tropical Depression
Nine centered in the SE Gulf of Mexico waters SE to the south-
central Caribbean near 14N74W. The ridging is providing an overall
diffluent environment aloft in support of scattered showers and
tstms occurring generally N of 16N between 68W-85W...including
portions of Hispaniola...Jamaica...and Cuba this evening. Farther
SW...weaker surface pressures are observed as troughing extending
from T.D. Nine links across Central America to the beginning of
the Monsoon Trough axis off the coast of southern Mexico in the
East Pacific region. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring
across inland portions of Central America and have the potential
to generate localized flooding and possible mud slides through the
overnight hours into Tuesday as the precipitation persists. Across
the eastern Caribbean...a surface trough is analyzed from NE
Venezuela near 09N65W to 13N64W moving W at 10-15 kt. Global
models indicate a maximum in mid-level energy moving over the SE
Caribbean generating isolated showers and tstms S of 15N between
60W-66W. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail E of 80W
and are slightly stronger...fresh to strong...across the south-
central Caribbean S of 15N between 66W-75W. As high pressure
builds across the SW North Atlc region through Wednesday...the
area of fresh to strong trades is expected to expand across the
entire central Caribbean between 68W-80W.
Scattered showers and tstms associated with an upper level low
centered NE of the island near 23N68W are occurring across the
island this evening. The upper level low is expected to continue
drifting westward to 70W through the overnight and then begin
moving N and weakening by Tuesday. Additional precipitation and
convection with possible heavy rainfall...flash flooding...and mud
slides are anticipated across the island through Tuesday.
Aside from active tropical cyclones...scattered showers and
tstms are noted across the SW North Atlc waters on the NE
periphery of Tropical Depression Nine centered in the SE Gulf of
Mexico. The convection is generally S of 31N W of 75W...including
the Bahamas and Florida peninsula. To the east...an upper level
low is centered near 23N68W and supports a surface trough from
23N70W to 28N68W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from
20N-28N between 64W-73W. Otherwise...the remainder of the central
and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 30N42W with axis
extending E-NE through 32N30W to beyond 40N16W.
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