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000
AXNT20 KNHC 170539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE ITCZ BEGINNING AT THE COAST NEAR 10N14W INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 3N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-46W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS TO OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 17/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO 23N85W WHERE IT BEGINS TO BACK UP AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N89W TO NW GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI. A SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF FRI PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA FRI THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HAITI INTO THE W ATLC. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT LUCIA ALONG 16N70W TO 17N80W TO INLAND OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SW ATLC WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI AND EXTREME SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HAITI INTO THE W ATLC AND WILL SHIFT E THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION THEN BECOMES STATIONARY BEFORE ENTERING THE W ATLC AT 17/0300 UTC NEAR 32N71W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N76W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25B80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH ABOUT 800 NM NE OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N21W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N26W TO 22N38W. W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NW WATERS THROUGH FRI NIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SE AS A COLD FRONT SAT. SURFACE LOW MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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