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AXNT20 KNHC 201201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. THE WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE...RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH...FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N49W 15N52W 10N53W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 23N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W.

A TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS-TO-HAITI-TO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND ITS BORDER WITH COLOMBIA...INCLUDING IN LAKE MARACAIBO...FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. THE NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN HAITI AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO THE 1008 MB LOW CENTER...TO 1030W AND 10N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N38W TO 11N50. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE...RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 22W/23W TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH...FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.


...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT REACHES 32N58W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N58W TO 30N70W...TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...AND CONTINUING INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N73W...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N95W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO 28N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS... KMZG...KBQX...KGVX...KVAF...KCRH...KVQT....KATP...KMDJ...KSPR... KIKT...KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED...IN TEXAS IN WESLACO AND EDINBURG...AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI...FROM VICTORIA TO PORT LAVACA WITH DRIZZLE AND TO PALACIOS...IN FLORIDA...FROM PANAMA CITY TO MARIANNA TO TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY...RAIN HAS STOPPED FOR THE MOMENT IN BROOKSVILLE. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES/COMMUNITIES...TO SARASOTA AND IN FORT MYERS...AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN MARATHON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N62W...TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM 9N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N72W IN COLOMBIA TO 8N82W IN PANAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF PANAMA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD.


...HISPANIOLA...

A TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS-TO-HAITI-TO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND ITS BORDER WITH COLOMBIA...INCLUDING IN LAKE MARACAIBO...FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. THE NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN HAITI AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE WILL PUSH NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N50W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 44W AND 62W.

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 14N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO 31N19W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N34W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N50W...TO 24N68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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