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AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN... GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM 10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W FROM VENEZUELA TO 17N MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE S OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W ALONG 15N20W TO 9N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 31W TO 52W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N87W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF WHICH SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO THE FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 81W AND 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W OVER THE SW GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM N AND WEST OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N FL AND INLAND OF THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED INLAND ACROSS MS/AL. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MS/AL HIGH. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF 83W. ELSEWHERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N IS COVERED IN DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST PRESENT. THIS IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12 N ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS DECREASING BELOW GALE-FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD W TO 70W S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.


...HISPANIOLA... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE ISLAND...ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH A THIN BAND OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N71W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N56W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING SAHARAN DUST PLUMES ADVECTING WEST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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