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AXNT20 KNHC 131757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...


...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...

THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 12 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W TO 03N12W AND 03N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N18W TO 02N26W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...AND CONTINUING TO 02S35W AND 03S41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W... AND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W WESTWARD.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20NSOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 45W...ARE RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 15N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 34W AND 46W.


...DISCUSSION...


...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SPANNED THE CAROLINAS AND FLORIDA 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED EASTWARD...INTO THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 22N77W BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO30N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO 27N90W...TO AN UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST 1025 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N95W. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO 29N100W AND BEYOND 30N102W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITHIN 120 NM TO 240 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W 26N70W...AND WITHIN 360 NM OR GREATER TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF 26N70W 22N80W 20N97W.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 93W AND 97W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N94W...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 20N97W...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR...KVOA.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KGLS...KHQI...AND KSPR FOR VISIBILITY...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...GALVESTON... AND FROM TOMBALL TO SUGARLAND...AND IN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. THE LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WERE OCCURRING FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS SOUTHWARD...DURING THE EARLIER MORNING HOURS...HAVE CLEARED UP. FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.


...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 27N65W...TO 21N76W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...TO 16N77W...TO EAST CENTRAL COASTAL NICARAGUA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.48 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW/CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE PRESENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...TO 16N77W...TO EAST CENTRAL COASTAL NICARAGUA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA... SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OF THE BAHAMAS/CUBA/HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST AND WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. EXPECT EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. A SECOND INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.


...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N60W-TO-WINDWARD PASSAGE SURFACE TROUGH. A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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