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AXNT20 KNHC 251803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED PRECIPITATION IS FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 37W AND 43W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 5N17W 5N25W 4N27W 5N32W 5N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 2W AND 17W...AND FROM 7N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 31W AND 54W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N NORTHWARD FROM 89W WESTWARD. A TROUGH IS ALONG 100W FROM MEXICO BEYOND TEXAS. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM 23N SOUTHWARD FROM 89W WESTWARD IS ANTICYCLONIC... AND IT EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 29N BETWEEN 87W AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN-FLOW SURFACE WINDS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N93W TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGUL AND KDLP KGBK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS... IN LOUISIANA IN PARTS OF LAKE CHARLES AND GALLIANO. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PART OF LOUISIANA...AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER AND MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN FLORIDA...IN VALPARAISO...TALLAHASSEE... AND IN NAPLES.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N53W TO 16N60W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N65W...AND TO 14N70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVER THE AREA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 74W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM NORTHERN NICARAGUA TO 16N78W...MERGING EVENTUALLY WITH THE NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 16N60W-TO-16N65W-TO-14N70W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW HAS BEEN COVERING THE AREA FROM 11N IN SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO WESTERN CUBA FROM 73W WESTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.63 IN GUADELOUPE.


...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N53W TO 16N60W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N65W...AND TO 14N70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVER THE AREA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 74W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING HISPANIOLA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE ISLAND. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS THE WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH GRADUALLY CHANGES FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...PART OF THE SAME NORTHERN BAHAMAS-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N40W 23N53W 16N60W...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N65W...AND TO 14N70W.

A SECOND AND REINFORCING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 25N54W. SOME OF THE ENERGY AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 31N33W-TO-23N53W-TO-14N70W ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 31N58W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 31N58W TO 31N61W 29N67W...AND TO 30N69W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N50W 29N49W 28N51W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N53W 25N54W 23N56W. THESE TWO TROUGHS WERE APPARENT IN THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 46W AND 68W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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