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000
AXNT20 KNHC 061236 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

UPDATED TO ADD SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC BASIN AS WELL AS FLORIDA. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK/LEFT SIDE OF THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH MON. WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON N OF 29N/31N BETWEEN 65W- 77W...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT ALSO INCREASING TO GALE.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERIA NEAR 04N09W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N09W TO 04N16W 05N19W 04N22W AND 03N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 36W AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 14W AND 31W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 90W...AND TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH EAST TEXAS. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL LOUISIANA...TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 20N...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 18 HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR...KBQX...KVAF...AND KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...NEARBY RAIN WITH THUNDER IN VICTORIA AND SUGARLAND. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER FROM THE HOUSTON IAH AIRPORT TO HUNTSVILLE. MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON DURING THE LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS. LOUISIANA...MVFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS. FROM MISSISSIPPI TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 28N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W...TO 21N80W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 21N80W TO 18N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ENDING IN WESTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAIN AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO HONDURAS.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND TO THE EAST OF 65W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.07 IN GUADELOUPE.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...AND NORTH-TO- NORTHEAST 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FOR BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEN A RIDGE...ARE FORECAST TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT WEST-TO- NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BRINGING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA...FOR DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO...AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF DAY ONE...BECOMING EAST-TO- SOUTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA... TO 28N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W...TO 21N80W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 21N80W TO 18N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ENDING IN WESTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N69W TO 22N72W IN THE BAHAMAS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N59W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W EASTWARD. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N68W IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MONA PASSAGE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N68W AND 26N89W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N63W AT THE COAST OF VENEZUELA...15N57W 18N55W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 400 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W EASTWARD. A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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