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000
AXNT20 KNHC 271100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W UNTIL 27/1200 UTC TODAY. THIS GALE WARNING IS A RESULT OF A 991 MB LOW NEAR 36N60W WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIPPING JUST S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W AND EXTENDS ALONG 8N16W TO 5N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W 2N36W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-4N E OF 6W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND BETWEEN 14W-29W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE N GULF. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER THE N GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N92W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS ALL OF THE GULF EXCEPT THE SE SECTOR INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST INLAND ACROSS THE N GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE N GULF THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N BEFORE RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY TUE AND A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL THEN PASS SE OF THE AREA WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N82W TO 11N76W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W AND ALL OF COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN ARE SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED MORNING. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 70W-81W AND COUPLED WITH DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 28N-30N W OF 76W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 62W-70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N55W TO 27N55W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 32N56W TO 28N60W WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 40W-52W. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED AT THE SURFACE BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 33N23W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N32W ALONG 24N39W 20N55WTO E CUBA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL PASS INTO W ATLC TODAY AND STRETCH ALONG 26N BY EARLY TUE. THE E PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N59W ALONG 26N65W TUE NIGHT WHILE THE W PORTION LIFTS N ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO CENTRAL ATLC LATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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