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AXNT20 KNHC 011130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 6N16W TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N37W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N E OF 27W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM E BAY OF CAMPECHE/W YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER NE FLORIDA TO JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES IS SUPPORTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE CONUS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 92W WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT PATCHES OF FOG OVER THE SAME AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF JUST OFFSHORE OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW GULF THROUGH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW GULF LATE MON AND REACH FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA THROUGH 23N96W TO 18N95W TUE EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT W DURING THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH MON EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 77W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 13N W OF 76W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CARIBBEAN RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 76W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE SE CARIBBEAN SE OF LINE FROM OVER MARTINIQUE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. FRESH TO STRONG SE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN N OF NW VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF HONDURAS TO 18N THROUGH TUE AND INCREASING TO STRONG EACH NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N63W ALONG 29N71W TO 19N75W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY BEYOND 32N79W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTED BY THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N72W TO OVER HAITI NEAR 19N73W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 52W-67W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N56W TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 26N59W TO 22N62W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM 28N36W THROUGH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 25N38W TO 22N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 30W-35W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE THERE TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT MON STRETCHING ALONG 30N THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT E MON NIGHT AND TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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