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AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...A 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 41N62W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N58W SW TO 21N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NORTHERN PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM IS N OF OHIO CENTERED NEAR 43N82W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING AHEAD OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT N OF 29N W OF 78W WITH SEAS FROM 9 TO 12 FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 KT DURING TUE AND THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS N OF OHIO CENTERED NEAR 43N82W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND IT SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS N OF 27N E OF 90W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE LATER THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N11W TO 05N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N26W TO 01N32W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 11W AND 21W AND FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE HALF EASTERN U.S. AND THE NW ATLC WATERS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A LOW PRES SYSTEM N OF OHIO CENTERED NEAR 43N82W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD THEN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 28N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND IT SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS N OF 27N E OF 90W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO W WINDS ARE N OF 24N E OF 95W. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES COVER THE REMAINDER WESTERN BASIN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF FROM AT LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TROPICAL WATERS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE BASIN LATER THIS MORNING...LEAVING IT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES ANCHORED OVER THE NW WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 41N62W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N58W SW TO 21N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 19N78W TO NORTHERN PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 10N81W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 19N TO 84W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 78W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROVIDE STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER EASTERN BASIN. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO START DISSIPATING LATE WED. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.


...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO PANAMA COASTAL WATERS IS FORECAST TO STALL THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING TUE AND WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 41N62W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N58W SW TO 21N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NORTHERN PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM IS N OF OHIO CENTERED NEAR 43N82W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING AHEAD OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT N OF 29N W OF 78W WITH SEAS FROM 9 TO 12 FT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF 60W. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL START DISSIPATING WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE SW N ATLC LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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