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AXNT20 KNHC 242339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA ALONG COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N14W TO 8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 7N29W TO 5N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 18W-39W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. TO THE NW...A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDING TO TEXAS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. IT WAS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NW MEXICO...AND AS A COLD FRONT FROM 27N105W TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W TO 30N88W. SCATTERED LIGHT CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 23N94W TO 30N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 26N. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT AND TROUGH WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT PREVAILS S OF THE TROUGH. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SW GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THOSE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES E. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N83W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NE ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AT THIS MOMENT...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG 82W...BETWEEN 19N-22N. TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. DRIER AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LIMITING CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE S GULF.


...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS EASTWARD WHILE LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ITS AXIS NE REACHING THE W ATLANTIC. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS NEAR 45W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N52W TO 31N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N- 28N BETWEEN 44W-47W. N OF 30N...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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