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AXNT20 KNHC 251737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST ON MON EVENING FROM 31N76W TO 28N77W TO 26N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST N OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT...AND N OF 28N W OF FRONT TO 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N12W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 2N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 21W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 45W-49W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N92W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF GOING AROUND THE HIGH. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WHILE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE GULF IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE N OF FRONT. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BE FROM THE NW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ENHANCING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W TO 20N82W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 19N82W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS AT 15N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF FRONT. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SMALL AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...OVER HISPANIOLA...AND S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 68W-71W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.


...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF FRONT. A GALE RECENTLY ENDED E OF FRONT N OF 29N. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N38W TO 27N40W TO 24N46W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N41W TO 22N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF FRONT FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 38W-41W. A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N17W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 25N E OF 35W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N39W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 30 HOURS FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE ABOVE. ALSO EXPECT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OTHER TWO COLD FRONTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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