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000
AXNT20 KNHC 281159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Two is centered near 30.0N 78.0W at 28/1200 UTC or about 195 nm south-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 235 nm south of Cape Fear North Carolina moving northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N to 33N between 75W and 79W. See latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 05N24W to 12N22W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 22W and 27W and was noted in the upper air time section analysis passing Dakar Senegal. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N to 11N between 22W and 28W.

Tropical wave extends from 03N56W to 09N56W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 54W and 58W on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored east of the Lesser Antilles near 15N59W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N to 09N between 46W and 54W and inland across northern Brazil and southern Guyana from the Equator to 03N between 56W and 60W.

Tropical wave extends from 06N74W to 14N73W moving W at 15 kt. The wave continues to interact with an upper level trough over the central Caribbean Sea and coincides with an area of maximum 700 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis over portions of northern Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 71W and 76W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 05N22W. The ITCZ axis extends from 05N22W to 02N32W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 14W and 19W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level low and associated troughing is over the central US plains that supports a broad middle to upper level diffluent zone over Louisiana and the lower Mississippi River valley this morning. This diffluence aloft along with lower level moisture and instability is supporting isolated showers and tstms N of 27N between 90W and 95W in the NW Gulf waters. Other isolated showers are possible across the western Gulf W of 90W from earlier convection initiated across eastern Mexico. Much of the basin is experiencing moderate to fresh E-SE winds and this synoptic pattern is expected through Sunday. Thereafter...surface ridging will build south along 90W decreasing winds slightly...maintaining light to gentle anticyclonic flow and overall stable conditions through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the central Caribbean with primarily dry and stable NW flow influencing much of the basin W of 77W. Conditions W of 77W remain fairly tranquil with only a few isolated showers occurring S-SW of Jamaica from 15N to 18N between 75W and 83W. E of 77W...maximum middle to upper level diffluence along with the presence of a tropical wave along 74W is providing for scattered showers and isolated tstms between E of 73W. The current upper level trough will gradually lift N of 20N by Monday...however upper level troughing will persist across the SW North Atlc off the coast of Florida with a relatively weak diffluent environment remaining E of 75W across Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the US/UK Virgin Islands through Tuesday. This will result is increased probabilities of precipitation through the middle of next week across the north-central and NE Caribbean.


...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are occurring across the island and adjacent coastal waters this morning due to a middle to upper level diffluent environment over the island on the southern periphery of an upper level low centered over the NW Bahamas near 25N77W. The upper level low will weaken with troughing remaining across the SW North Atlc through early next week providing higher probability for precipitation and convection through the weekend into the first half of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Depression Two continues to provide focus for the SW North Atlc waters this morning as it tracks towards the SE US coast. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a relatively diffluent environment aloft due to a middle to upper level low and trough axis extending from 31N82W to 22N75W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 19N to 27N between 63W and 73W. The upper level troughing is expected to persist off the coast of FLorida through Tuesday. Farther east...a pair of 1023 mb high centers influence the central and eastern Atlc centered near 29N35W and 29N49W. Overall...fair weather conditions prevail E of 60W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ HUFFMAN/Wallace

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