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AXNT20 KNHC 011116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 30N W OF A COLD FRONT TO 65W. SEAS BETWEEN 13 AND 20 FT IN NW TO N SWELL CAN BE EXPECTED. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO 28.5N LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING OFF OF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST N OF 30N W OF 77W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE SE US COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 13 FT. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT E OF THE FRONT AS THE FRONT MOVES E ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. EXPECT SEAS OF 11 TO 16 FT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE-FORCE BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO GALE-FORCE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AGAIN BELOW GALE-FORCE BY 1200 UTC MONDAY MORNING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

GULF OF MEXICO...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT NW OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE S GULF DURING THE DAY MONDAY...DIMINISHING BELOW GALE-FORCE MONDAY NIGHT.

SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 5N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 1N25W TO 2N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 11W AND 44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ALONG THE SE US COAST NEAR 22N78W. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. SE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF BASIN BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL CUBA AND TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER CUBA THAT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR 23N83W TO 24N87W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO THE TX COAST NEAR 25N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 91W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N AND OUT OF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TONIGHT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY N OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 81W...AS WELL AS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND WITHIN 100 NM S OF THESE ISLANDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS.

HISPANIOLA...

PERSISTENT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT TO THE N OF THE ISLAND IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS BOTH HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N54W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N72W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 30N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM S AND E OF THE FRONTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N49W TO 22N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N55W TO 17N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A 1019 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N35W IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE US OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OFF THE COAST OF N FL. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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