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AXNT20 KNHC 281746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W AND SW TO 01S22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA IS PROVIDING NE TO E SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TX COAST NEAR 27N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. WINDS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH ARE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLIES TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO S FL NEAR FT LAUDERDALE TO THE GULF NEAR 25N82 TO 22N91W. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST E OF 91W...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN CENTRAL FL AND 88W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE GULF WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST E OF CENTRAL AMERICA PROVIDES NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. E TO NE TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 15N84W TO 11N62W. THIS INCLUDES THE GULF OF HONDURAS...JAMAICA...PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND...SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB LOW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS A FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW AND INTO OUR AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N64W TO 28N75W TO THE FL COAST NEAR 26N80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS COMBINING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF...ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE ATLC WITHIN 175 NM NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF 32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N MOROCCO. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OFF THE COAST OF N AND CENTRAL FL INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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