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AXNT20 KNHC 252333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 10N42W TO 00N42W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE AT MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS E OF THE AXIS. A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE FROM 00N-06N BETWEEN 37W-47W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 05N15W. FROM THAT POINT THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 06N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH AXES.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDING ITS AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING THE EASTERN GULF TO 90W. A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF ALONG 83W GENERATING A DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF ITS AXIS WHICH IN TURN IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WATERS E OF 84W. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TO BE OVER THE SW GULF ALSO REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS N OF 18N AND W OF 75W. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND S REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS MAINLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-82W. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-84W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDS S REACHING THE ISLAND AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS HAITI WHICH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF OUR AREA PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS WERE ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM 27N59W TO 26N62W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SECOND ONE IS FROM 30N52W TO 22N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 26N BETWEEN 49W-59W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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