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AXNT20 KNHC 021803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 11 TO 17 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING...ITS AXIS IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 18W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BULGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 07N TO 11N E OF 20W. METEOSAT PSEUDO-NATURAL AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ENGULFING THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 36W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THAT MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE...SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ENGULF THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO THE ITCZ REGION FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 48W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. DRY AIR AND DUST ARE OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR 58W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT...EXCEPT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WHERE MODERATE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W
...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION AT THE TIME.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 09N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N21W AND CONTINUES TO 06N34W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N37W TO 06N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 06N57W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE RIDGE IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N85W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE ALONG COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN MEXICO THAT ALONG WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER THE SW GULF SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N-25N W OF 96W. MODERATE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SE CONUS...ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONT...ALONG WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EXTEND WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND REGION FROM CLEARWATER TO FORT MYERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE SE GULF FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EXCEPT THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 11 TO 17 FT. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE BASIN ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EPAC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS HONDURAS TO EAST OF BELIZE. MODERATE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 19N W OF 85W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. A SAHARAN AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING HAZY CONDITIONS. DUST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN S OF 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 83W. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.


...HISPANIOLA...

A SAHARAN DRY AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST IS BEING REPORTED. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS LARGE TONGUE OF DRY AND DUSTY AIR CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC WATERS HAS ITS BASE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION...WHICH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 29N W OF 77W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CENTRAL CUBA COASTAL WATERS BEING ENHANCED BY MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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