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AXNT20 KNHC 020517
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W TO 01S14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 02S25W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 02N BETWEEN 14W AND 23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 12W AND 38W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED OFFSHORE OF SW FLORIDA NEAR 26N84W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE TEXAS COAST. SE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF WINDS TO 20 KT FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 89W AND 94W...AND LIGHTER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 150 NM OF THE HIGH CENTER. THE RIDGING SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT. RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THEY ARE FRESH TO STRONG. DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT. PATCHES OF SHALLOW SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 15N AND 20N...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA. OTHERWISE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NW OF HISPANIOLA IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTING UNTIL FULL DISSIPATION OF THE FRONT OCCURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N69W TO THE FL COAST AROUND DAYTONA BEACH NEAR 29N81W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N43W TO 24N60W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 70 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N42W TO 19N41W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FROM 05N AND 32N. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR 30N60W BY FRIDAY WITH CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO

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