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AXNT20 KNHC 251058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave over Africa extends from 3N8W to 14N4W moving west 10 to 15 kt. Wave coincides with an amplified 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 36W from 1N to 8N moving west near 15 kt. Wave coincides with a lowly amplified 700 mb trough and along the leading edge of an area of deep moisture. Any convection in the vicinity is associated with the ITCZ not the tropical wave.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 58W south of 11N to inland over Guyana South America moving west near 25 kt. Wave coincides with an highly amplified 700 mb trough and is along the leading edge of an area of deep moisture. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean along 79W extends south of 13N across Panama into the east Pacific region moving west 5 to 10 kt. Wave coincides with an amplified 700 mb trough and is embedded within a large area of deep moisture. No associated deep convection.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W to 5N21W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 6N28W to the tropical wave near 5N35W then resumes west of the wave near 5N37W to South America near 3N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 90/120 NM north of the ITCZ between 39W-43W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 6N-8N east of 16W to inland over Sierra Leone Africa, within 90 NM of monsoon trough/ITCZ between 20W-28W, within 60 NM of the ITCZ between 28W-33W, and within 120 NM south of the ITCZ between 35W-43W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 5N-8N between 50W-54W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper ridge anchored in the east Pacific region extends over east Mexico, east Texas, and Oklahoma while an upper trough extends over the far east CONUS, east of the Florida peninsula into the west Caribbean. This is giving the Gulf northwest flow aloft. Although the upper ridge is advecting moisture across the west Gulf, no shower activity is noted on radar or satellite imagery this morning. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across northeast Florida to a 1021 mb high near 30N86W continuing to Corpus Christi Texas. The upper trough east of Florida is generating some scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms south of 25N east of 84W including the Florida Keys leaving the remainder of the Gulf with mostly clear skies this morning. The surface ridge will persist over the Gulf through Friday. The pressure gradient will increase over the northwest Gulf Friday morning increasing the southeast winds to fresh to strong. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours along the north and west coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula due to the local effects of a diurnal surface trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A highly amplified upper trough extends east of the Florida peninsula across Cuba into the west Caribbean west of 70W while an equally highly amplified upper ridge extends from over South America across the Lesser Antilles into the west-central Atlantic covering the remainder of the Caribbean basin. The upper trough is generating scattered showers/thunderstorms from 13N-18N between 74W-82W including Jamaica and from 20N-22N between 81W-84W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are north of 13N to over Hispaniola and west Cuba between 68W-75W. The ITCZ extends along 10N between Colombia and Costa Rica into the east Pacific region generating isolated showers/thunderstorms south of 10N east of 76W to inland over Panama. Although the upper ridge is advecting moisture across the central Caribbean, no shower activity is noted on radar or satellite imagery this morning. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Thursday. Winds will diminish across the basin Thursday as a surface trough intensifies across the west Atlantic weakening the surface ridge. The tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean will exit the basin early Thursday. Another tropical wave will enter the southeast Caribbean early Thursday.

HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are across the island this morning. The upper trough currently over eastern Cuba and the western Caribbean will expand eastward Thursday and Friday. A surface trough over the western Atlantic is expected to intensify and coupled with the upper trough will continue to the give the island chances of showers and possible thunderstorms through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge covers the far west Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb high near 32N76W and extending a ridge axis across northeast Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A highly amplified upper trough extends over the far eastern CONUS, just east of the Florida peninsula then across Cuba into the western Caribbean covering the western Atlantic west of 68W while an equally highly amplified upper ridge extends from over South America across the Lesser Antilles and into the west-central Atlantic to beyond 32N60W. This is creating a diffluent environment over a portion of the west Atlantic to generate scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms southwest of the Bahamas through the Straits of Florida west of 71W. Isolated showers are possible between 64W- 72W. Beneath all of the activity above is a dissipating stationary front that extends through 32N65W to 29N70W continuing as a surface trough to 25N75W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high near 35N46W. The west Atlantic surface trough will retrograde slowly reaching near 75W this weekend. A low could form along this trough over weekend.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ PAW

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