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AXNT20 KNHC 231754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N90W TO 26N92W. GALE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NE GULF. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. SEE THE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N16W TO 6N30W TO 5N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 12W AND 23W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W TO 38W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W AND EXTENDS N OVER THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA. A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NW GULF SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS NEAR 31N93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM 30N89W AND OVER FL NEAR 29N82W. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF S OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND LOW...AND THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE N GULF IS SUPPORTING A EAST MOVING SQUALL LINE FROM 29N90W TO 26N92W AND OTHER CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT E OF 85W. GALE FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AWAY FROM THE SQUALL LINE...15 TO 20 KT S TO SE FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN BASIN WITH S TO SW FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SQUALL LINE WILL EXIT THE BASIN AND DISSIPATE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W. DRY AIR IN THE REGION AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN BASIN. A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...AND ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CONVECTION BASIN- WIDE.


...HISPANIOLA...

A MOIST AIRMASS INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FL NEAR 29N82W TO 25N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N72W TO 25N56W AND A COLD FRONT 25N56W TO 31N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THESE FRONTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE BASIN N OF 15N E OF 40W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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