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AXNT20 KNHC 250003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W TO 25N81W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB NEAR 35N51W IS SUPPORTING SW TO W GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. EXPECTED SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 16 FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N32W WHERE IT BRIEFLY BREAKS DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH...THEN CONTINUES FROM 02N36W TO 01N47W...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 07N34W TO 02N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT ACROSS THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ON THE NW GULF NEAR 24N96W. NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT COVERS THE BASIN E OF 87W WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE SE OF LINE FROM 30N87W TO 20N96W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN W TO NW SWELL. COLD DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE MODERATE LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT OVERCAST SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF SUNDAY. A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING...FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W TO 25N81W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO 22N82W TO NORTHERN-CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR WEST CARIBBEAN WEST OF FRONT NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE WITH SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FT. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 80W...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WIND INCREASES TO 20 KT. OTHER ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDES SCATTERED PATCHES SHALLOW MOISTURE ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO 1N686W...TRANSITIONING TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 21N77W TO 16N86W MONDAY MORNING.


...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE EASTERN HISPANIOLA ENHANCING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WHICH ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W TO 25N81W WITH TAIL EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SUPPORT THE FRONT AND A RIDGE FARTHER EAST ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF CUBA...TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB NEAR 35N51W IS SUPPORTING SW TO W GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. EXPECTED SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 16 FEET. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N42W SW TO 26N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N TO 35W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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