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AXNT20 KNHC 061718
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 05N26W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N26W AND EXTENDS TO 03N38W TO 05N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N53W TO 07N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N96W. WITH THIS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN. TO THE SE...A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 24N88W TO 25N80W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE NE NEAR ARKANSAS WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NW GULF. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 14N84W TO 19N77W THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THAT POINT INTO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 22N74W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N84W TO 15N78W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 15N AND W OF 80W. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO INDUCING CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ARE RANGING BETWEEN 4 TO 6 INCHES AS REPORTED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS THEIR ADJACENT WATERS.



HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER THE ISLAND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY TO THE W OF THE ISLAND. URBAN FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 25N80W TO 30N76W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A STATIONARY EXTENDS FROM 21N75W TO 32N67W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 23N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N44W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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