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AXNT20 KNHC 241758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 7N20W TO 4N31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN GENERAL FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 22W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 35W AND 52W.

A SURFACE TROUGH WAS APPARENT IN THE SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALONG 7N37W 1N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MEXICO...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W AT 24/0915 UTC...SPREADING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 97W AND THE COAST AT 24/1315 UTC. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN-FLOW SURFACE WINDS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 19N55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N77W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVER THE AREA FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 81W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO 15N78W...MERGING EVENTUALLY WITH THE NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 19N55W-TO-15N77W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.


...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 19N55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N77W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH AND NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT 32N58W-TO-14N63W TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA AND EVEN TO 17N75W FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA DURING THE SECOND SET OF 24 HOURS...BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N48W AND 19N55W...TO 18N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N77W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 28N63W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT 32N59W TO 30N71W...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 16N NORTHWARD FROM 57W WESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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